I’m so excited I can hardly contain myself.
Because I’m putting the finishing touches on a special
trading bulletin titled…
How The World’s Best Traders Are Beating The Stock
Market… TODAY! —-
Listen closely: I’ve spent the better part of a decade
researching and testing a number of different trading
A handful have panned out.
About 99.9% of them flat out failed.
I often wondered…
“What is the underlying reason some active trading
strategies work and others don’t?”
Finally… I’ve gotten my answer.
The special bulletin I’m preparing for you reveals that
answer. For now, let me just say this…
There really is ONE single factor to big (I mean BIG!)
short term stock gains.
This factor is at least partly responsible for
World Record For One-Year Personal Portfolio
In the bulletin I’ll tell you all about how this record
was set. It still stands as the biggest gain for a
personal portfolio in the history of the stock market.
Plus, I’ll also reveal…
- What researchers at the University of Chicago verified
as the third factor to stock market returns.
- How one man used this “factor” to turn $11,000 into
$42,000,000 in three years.
- Why this is perfect for regular traders who want quick
and consistent gains without all the hard work of
- The other two ways to make serious gains in the stock
market. And why they pale in comparison to this one.
- How to bet only on the winning stocks as they are
proving themselves to be winners.
- When the biggest gains for individual stocks happen…
and… why most traders miss out on this window of
- How to find the TOP 1% of stocks most likely to surge
in price. (Try asking your broker if he knows. Ha!)
- How 10 trades using this factor turned into 243% gains
in 2-1/2 months.
And a ton more I don’t have time to explain right now.
So listen: This bulletin will be ready in the next few
days. In the meantime, I have another email to send you.
The next email (you’ll get it in a day or two) explains
how finance researchers proved this is the last factor
that determines stock returns.
CEO WealthPire, Inc.
P.S. By the way, the subject line of the next email will
The “Unkown” Factor To Stock Returns
Make sure you read it.
Usually, when a stock you own gets good press, it often translates into profits. Nobody wants to miss “the next big thing,” and that can fuel buying interest in an issue. Interestingly, Investor Business Daily’s Scott Stoddard suggests in his piece “Wide Media Coverage May Signal Your Stock Has Peaked,” that too much media coverage on a stock may translate into too much of a good thing.
“Media hype can help drum up interest in the Super Bowl, a new TV show or some other event and boost interest and ratings,” Stoddard begins. “But in the stock market, heavy media coverage is often a lagging indicator, kicking in after a stock has already enjoyed a big run.”
Stoddard points out that magazines like Fortune and Forbes typically run cover photos and profiles of companies or CEOs in part to satisfy their readers’ interest in finding the secrets to success. That helps sell copies. Whether or not the prices of the stocks that media outlets profile rise or fall is a secondary concern.
Stoddard uses the historical example of Oracle’s (ORCL) share price rise in late 1999 and early 2000. “Oracle is a good example of a stock that began attracting huge media attention after it had already enjoyed a huge run-up,” he stated. “Oracle cleared an 11.76 buy point (adjusted for a pair of 2-for-1 splits, both in 2000) in a flat base-on-base pattern in the week ended Oct. 29, 1999. Over the next year, it quadrupled to a peak of 46.47 in the week of Sept. 1, 2000, about six months after tech bubble reached its zenith.”
According to Stoddard, the database and business software developer continued to attract media attention as it was peaking. IBD ran stories on the company in March 2000. In June that year, Oracle founder and CEO Larry Ellison was quoted as saying that the company’s potential was “breathtaking.”
Jim Royal is a regular contributor to the Motley Fool, specializing in writing about “special situations”—identifying stocks that he believes should rise in price for very specific reasons. Last month, in a piece titled “I’m Putting Real Money on This Spin-Off,” he wrote about a recent spin-off from Valero (VLO) called CST Brands (CST), which he added to his special situations list.
According to Royal, CST Brands operates nearly 1,900 convenience stores/gas stations in the U.S. and Canada. Over 1,000 sites are located in the U.S., with about 60% exposed to the robust economy of Texas. Domestically, the company owns 81% of its locations. In Canada, over 60% of outlets are in Quebec, while just 38% of sites are owned.
“Last year CST generated revenue of $13.1 billion and would have made $379 million in EBITDA as a stand-alone entity. In addition to fuel sales, the company relies heavily on tobacco and alcohol – about 50% of store sales – like other convenience stores do. Store sales are a key driver of profitability,” Floyd stated.
He also said that the convenience store industry is “surprisingly robust, with consistent growth over the past two decades, the only interruption being the financial crisis. And even then it was only fuel sales that dipped, not the more lucrative inside sales. CST expects to grow store count about 1.5% this year and refocus on growing inside-the-store sales.”
Something has gone right since Floyd first put his spotlight on CST. At the time he wrote about the issue, it was trading at $27.50 per share. Currently, CST shares are trading north of $33 each.
Before the month of May ends, stock analysts everywhere are taking up the old adage, “sell in May and Go Away,” and putting their own spin on it. Last week we presented an article on the market’s historical performance in May, which didn’t support the adage. Today, Jonas Elmerrajii takes a look at a basket of stocks he thinks should be sold in May in his Stockpickr article “5 Toxic Stocks to Sell in May and Go Away,”—even though he doesn’t believe that the adage itself is a good one.
“By now, you’ve probably heard the clichéd expression “sell in May and go away” about a million times. I’ve said before that I don’t think it’s good advice for the broad market in 2013— but for a small group of “toxic stocks,” that trite phrase could be pretty sage wisdom,” Elmerrajii begins.
In spite of the broad market rally this year, he believes that some stocks are looking “toxic” right now for a variety of reasons “And those names that are underperforming — or showing signs of a major bearish change in trend — could drag mightily on your investment returns this year,” he cautioned. “While a rising tide lifts all ships in a bull market, it also hastens the sinking of the few ships with holes in them.”
Relative weakness is the primary technical indicator Elmerrajii looks for as a sell sign. “One of the biggest red flags right now is relative weakness; The stocks that aren’t participating in the across-the-board equity rally are the ones that you need to think about unloading. And the ones that are looking outright bearish are the ones that you need to sell now.
While acknowledging that the companies on his list—Sonoco Logistics Partners (SXL), Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), Eni SpA (E), Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Vodafone (VOD)—“aren’t junk,” Elmerrajii provides an in-depth analysis of why they may merit selling here.
One of the most common ways investors evaluate a company is to compare its stock performance and valuation to other companies in the same sector. A look at relative sales, earnings and growth rates often can lead to the identification of an issue that has the potential to trade higher, or conversely, might make a good short. In his article “Is Five Below Above Fair Value?,” Barron’s author Jack Hough discusses the prospects for Five Below (FIVE) shares following the company’s recent release of its Q1 earnings report.
“Tuesday morning, Five Below (FIVE) reported that first-quarter revenue jumped 33% on a 4.2% improvement in same-store stores. That’s remarkable growth at a time when many U.S. companies are struggling to grow revenue at all, and especially so for retailers that saw cold weather reduce store traffic this year,” Hough begins.
“The more remarkable thing about Five Below,” said Hough, “is its stock market value. The retailer of pre- and young-teen essentials like Sour Patch candies, flip flops, water guns and nail polish, all priced from $1 to $5, had a public offering at $17 a share last July. The stock closed its first day of trading above $25. In morning trading, shares were up 3.1% to $39.84.”
Hough notes that at its current price, Five Below, which is still a regional chain with 258 stores in 19 mostly eastern states, is worth $2.1 billion. “Compare that with some nationwide chains that are household names with moms, dads and teens: Ann Taylor parent Ann (ANN) is worth $1.5 billion; suit seller Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) is valued at $1.3 billion; and denim specialist Aeropostale (ARO) is worth $1.2 billion.”
“Investors who buy Five Below shares today pay more than 50 times this year’s earnings forecast, versus about 14 for the typical U.S. stock. That makes the purchase a risky one, although the price may be more reasonable than it appears,” Hough stated. Interestingly, however, he’s bullish on the stock. “Five Below has unique potential among publicly traded retailers, for two main reasons.”
When you have an important decision to make in your
life, do you ask just one person for advice?
If you’re like most folks, the answer is no. You
probably ask three people… four… even ten.
So why should your portfolio be any different?
The short answer is it shouldn’t.
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The results have been amazing… and there are actually
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But I highly suggest you click below to watch the video
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Not only that, but I also reveal just how this software
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CEO, Wealthpire Inc.
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Traders are always on the lookout for stocks that have strong growth potential, dubbing the “potential 10-baggers,” or “potential doublers.” After all, who wouldn’t want to double their investment money, or better still, get back 1,000% returns? In a lengthy and detailed piece for SeekingAlpha titled, “Upcoming Catalysts Could Push ChemoCentryx to Double in 2013,” author BPD research makes a strong bull case for the company’s shares potentially doubling this year.
Founded in 1997, ChemoCentryx went public in February 2012. According to the author, the company currently has a pipeline of six small molecule drugs (three of which are partnered with big pharma heavyweight GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ) that target specific chemokine receptors. GSK also has a significant equity interest in the company—7.33 million shares, or about 20% of CCXI’s 38.6 million outstanding shares.
“Chemo-attractant cytokines, or chemokines, are chemical messengers involved in coordinating the body’s inflammatory response to infection, irritation, or injury. Different combinations of chemokines and their respective receptors can direct different inflammatory responses. Chronic inflammation over a long period of time can lead to certain auto-immune diseases, including inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis, diabetic nephropathy, multiple sclerosis, and others,” the story states.
In addition to its novel drug pipeline, the company currently has 490 issued or allowed patents (with expirations ranging from 2020 to 2029) and 225 patents pending. “CCXI’s pipeline was derived from its EnabLink Technology which identifies small molecule antagonists best suited for interfering with the chemokine receptor mostly associated with a particular disease. CCXI has stated its intent to retain significant rights to programs that would address specialty market opportunities while partnering those programs addressing primary care markets.”
The author outlines three significant advantages of it products currently undergoing clinical trials: 1) selectivity, which avoids the widespread immunosuppressive effects of current therapies; 2) oral administration versus injectable or infusable therapies; and 3) a lower manufacturing cost as a small molecule as compared to protein therapeutics, or biologics.
By any measure, U.S. stock markets have been on an extraordinary run this year. While it’s hard to resist the temptation to ride the bull run higher, there will be a time when the markets fall—and historically, spring has been one of those times. For that reason, Motley Fool blogger Robert Ciura raises the question, “Should You Sell in May and Go Away.”
“As the calendar turns toward the second quarter of the year, it’s again time to revisit the popular investing adage, “Sell in May and go away,” writes Ciura. “As the theory stipulates, investors should get rid of their stocks and head for the safety of cash, so as to avoid the market’s seemingly inevitable spring swoon.”
Ciura takes a look back in time to see how that adage has played out in reality. He found that “over the past few years, the theory held true. In May 2010, the S&P 500 Index lost 4% during the month. Similar declines, of 3% and 6%, occurred in May 2011 and May 2012, respectively” Despite that data, Giura doesn’t buy the theory. “This pattern has only added fuel to the fire of what is, in truth, a seriously flawed idea,” he concludes.
In fact, Ciura remains quite bullish on the markets’ overall prospects. “The truth is that the declines seen in May over the past few years belie what has been a remarkable rally since the Great Recession. No matter the month, the market offers some of America’s best, most profitable blue chips stocks that should be bought and held.”
Ciura goes on to list the issues he likes, and why. “Investors interested not in flipping stocks for quick gains, but rather in building wealth over the long term, likely realize the foolishness of the “sell in May and go away” adage. Timing the market for any period of time is rarely a wise idea. Unfortunately, none of us has the ability to see the future, despite what we’d all like to believe,” he concludes.
Most traders spend the majority of their time looking for issues that appear poised to break higher, in pursuit of quick gains. Far less time, however, is usually dedicated to drawing up a game plan as to when it’s the best time to lock in profits. In an ongoing Investor’s Business Daily column called Investor’s Corner, author Wictor Reklaiti addresses the topic in his article, “A Key Sell Sign: A Weak Rebound After A Big Sell-Off.”
“When it comes to making decisions about a stock, you generally can let volume be your guide,” Reklaiti begins. “Volume can tell you what to do — not just when you’re looking at buying, but also when you’re selling a good stock.”
Early on, most traders learn that an increase in volume, accompanied by a rising stock price, is often a solid technical indicator of more potential gains to come. Using volume to pick a sell point, however, is a bit trickier. “One example of volume helping you decide to sell can occur with rebounds,” Reklaiti explains. “Let’s say a stock has fallen hard in strong turnover, but you’ve held onto it. Perhaps the high-volume decline didn’t actually trip one of IBD’s sell rules, or maybe the stock clearly found support at its 10-week moving average during its slide.”
At that point, Reklaiti says, you want to pay attention when the stock rebounds. “Check how volume looks with the rally, on both daily and weekly charts. Weak turnover, such as much lower trade than during the sell-off, tells you that you probably want to sell. You might also see poor price recovery.”
Like people, stocks go through good times and bad. And, like people, sometimes when something bad happens to a stock it tends to overshadow all the good things. In her recent Barron’s piece “Baxter Can Bounce Back,” author Dimitra Defotis profiles the shares of pharma heavyweight Baxter International (BAX), making a bull case for the shares after they took a recent beating due to disappointing drug trial results.
“Despite the failure of a late-stage Alzheimer’s drug study, announced Tuesday, Baxter remains a compelling investment,” argues Defotis. She immediately cites a comment by Joanne Wuensch, a BMO Capital Markets analyst who follows the company, to support her thesis. “While the headline is disappointing, we believe expectations were low, and this may prove a clearing event for the stock,” Wuensch opined.
Defotis notes that Baxter has underperformed its peers this year even as competitors, including Eli Lilly (LLY), have struggled to produce Alzheimer’s treatments. She contends that regardless of the level of progress on the race for good Alzheimer’s drugs, Baxter plans to release dozens of new products, and more than two-thirds of its revenue comes from products that are market leaders in their categories.
Baxter has also been active on the acquisition front, makings its largest acquisition in December when it purchased Gambro for $4 billion. “That should yield significant opportunities as Gambro is a big producer of hemodialysis in hospital settings, which dovetails nicely with Baxter’s at-home dialysis business,” Defotis said.
“Also, emerging markets present a significant growth opportunity in the next several years. Baxter is expected to produce $15.5 billion in revenue this year, and foreign markets comprise about 60% of revenue. Emerging markets could represent a third of revenue in coming years.”