Citi Goes Against the Street, Upgrades Harley-Davidson to Buy

Harley-Davidson has been a tough stock to own. Since the end of 2022, shares have dropped 41% while the S&P 500 roughly doubled. Citi thinks that streak is about to break.

Analyst James Hardiman upgraded the motorcycle maker to Buy from Neutral on Monday, raising his price target to $33 from $31. That implies about 34% upside from Friday's close, and the stock popped nearly 6% in premarket trading on the news, as CNBC reported.

Hardiman's call goes directly against the grain. Of the 17 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, 11 still rate it a hold or underperform. Only six, including Citi now, call it a buy. That split is exactly why this upgrade is worth paying attention to — Citi is making a contrarian bet before the rest of the Street catches up.

Harley's stock chart tells the pessimists' story well. The company has been stuck in a multiyear slump as younger riders gravitate toward smaller, cheaper bikes and the core Baby Boomer customer base ages out of the market.

The case rests on retail momentum that's quietly been building despite all that. Harley posted positive domestic retail growth in both halves of 2026, and Hardiman's latest checks suggest September retail sales could be up by double digits.

If that holds up, Hardiman argues the company would exit the year with its strongest retail momentum in years — a meaningful shift after a stretch where even modest improvement felt like a win.

"While we may never simultaneously have complete clarity and a mispriced stock, we believe that now may be a compelling entry point ahead of 3Q earnings/guidance and an intriguing 2027 story." — James Hardiman, Analyst, Citi

That's a rare moment of candor from a sell-side analyst, and it's worth sitting with. Hardiman isn't promising a sure thing — he's saying the risk-reward has shifted enough to act before the picture is fully clear.

For investors looking at HOG specifically, the thesis has three legs. First, that retail momentum carrying into year-end. Second, a major new product launch coming in 2027 that Citi believes will reinvigorate the lineup. Third, ongoing cost discipline — Seeking Alpha's coverage of the note flagged roughly $150 million in targeted cost cuts, plus a potential tailwind from the LiveWire electric motorcycle business finally gaining traction.

Hardiman also raised his estimates for the third and fourth quarters of this year, along with full-year 2027 and 2028 projections — a sign he expects the improvement to compound rather than fade after one good quarter.

The near-term numbers won't look pretty, and that's the risk investors need to weigh. Harley reports third-quarter results around October 28, and analysts polled by LSEG expect earnings to have tumbled more than 80% from a year earlier, with revenue down roughly 1%. If that print disappoints relative to Citi's optimism, the stock could give back Monday's gains fast.

The way to play this one is patience. Rather than chasing the premarket pop, watch how the stock holds up into the October 28 earnings date. A beat-and-raise quarter, paired with commentary on 2027 product plans, would validate Hardiman's thesis and likely drag more of those 11 skeptical analysts off the sidelines.

Citi's $33 target assumes the turnaround sticks. If September retail data confirms the double-digit growth Hardiman is flagging, this could be the start of HOG shaking off three years of underperformance — but it's still a show-me story until the next earnings report lands.

Bottom line: Harley-Davidson is a high-risk, high-reward bet on a 2027 turnaround story that one top analyst is willing to call early — just don't expect the ride to be smooth between now and then.