Moderna Options Traders Pile In After Cancer Vaccine Data Doubles The Stock

Moderna shares jumped nearly 10% on Tuesday to $154.27, and options traders showed up in force to bet the move keeps going. That's a remarkable turn for a stock that spent most of the last two years written off as a COVID-era relic.

Investors purchased 106,605 call options on the stock Tuesday — about 35% above the typical daily volume of 78,801 contracts, according to MarketBeat's tracking of unusual options activity. Trading volume overall hit 25.7 million shares, more than double the average.

The catalyst goes back to late August. Moderna and Merck reported that their personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, combined with Merck's Keytruda, met its primary endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial — significantly cutting the risk of recurrence and distant metastasis in high-risk patients after surgery.

The market's initial reaction was almost violent. Moderna stock spiked 177% in a single session on the news and has gained roughly 150% for the month of August overall, according to Benzinga's coverage of the rally. That kind of move in a large-cap biotech is genuinely rare.

Moderna stock has more than doubled in August alone, driven almost entirely by a single Phase 3 readout for its personalized melanoma vaccine.

What makes this different from a typical binary biotech pop is what it represents strategically. Moderna built its entire commercial identity around COVID-19 vaccines, and that business has been shrinking for years as pandemic-era demand fades. A validated oncology pipeline gives the company a second growth leg that isn't tied to seasonal vaccination cycles.

The company also just picked up FDA approval for the first seasonal flu mRNA vaccine, adding a near-term commercial catalyst on top of the longer-dated oncology story. Upcoming appearances at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference on September 14 and the Bernstein Healthcare Forum on September 23 could bring fresh updates on both fronts.

Wall Street's response has been more measured than the stock price. Analyst sentiment remains genuinely split — seven rate the stock a Buy, 13 a Hold, and three a Sell, with an average price target of just $80.53, according to MarketBeat's tally. That target sits far below Tuesday's $154.27 close, which tells you the sell-side hasn't caught up with the re-rating yet, or thinks the move has run ahead of the fundamentals.

There's a real competitive risk sitting underneath the enthusiasm, too. GSK is advancing its own mRNA flu vaccine into Phase III trials, a direct shot at Moderna's newly approved flu product just as it's hitting the market.

For retail investors, the options activity itself is a signal worth reading carefully. Heavy call buying after a move this large usually means traders are betting on continuation into the September healthcare conference season rather than fading the rally. That's a momentum bet, not a value one.

Anyone considering a position here should size it like the volatile trade it is. A stock that moved 177% in a day can retrace just as fast if conference updates disappoint or if the melanoma data details, still not fully public, come in softer than the initial headline suggested.

The better approach for most investors: treat MRNA above $150 as a trading position tied to specific catalysts (the two September conferences), not a buy-and-hold thesis, until the analyst price targets start moving up to meet the new reality.

Bottom line: Moderna's oncology breakthrough is real and the options market is betting on more upside — but with the average analyst target less than half the current price, this is a stock for active traders watching the calendar, not a set-it-and-forget-it holding.