SoFi Down 42% in 2026: StoneX and Benchmark See a $25 Rebound

SoFi Technologies has been one of 2026's more painful holds. The stock is down nearly 42% year to date. On Tuesday, two firms said that's an overreaction.

StoneX Financial initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $25 price target. That implies roughly 64% upside from Monday's close, according to CNBC.

Benchmark landed in the same place on the same day. It also started SoFi at Buy with a $25 target, pointing to "operating momentum," per CNBC's roundup of Tuesday's biggest analyst calls.

Do the math and the starting point is clear. A $25 target at 64% upside puts Monday's close at roughly $15 a share, a long way below where the stock began the year.

Two independent shops landing on one number doesn't make it right. But it does mean the bull case isn't just one analyst's hunch.

StoneX's Mark Palmer built his argument on a gap between the business and the stock. SoFi's adjusted net revenue grew more than 40% year over year in the second quarter, even as the shares fell hard.

"A 40% price decline alone does not make a stock inexpensive, but such a drop paired with record operating progress and an underappreciated new business line does, in our view." — Mark Palmer, Analyst, StoneX Financial

Palmer said SoFi added more members, deposits, products and profit in 2Q26 than in any prior quarter. He argues the market has marked the stock down as if all four were shrinking.

The "new business line" is stablecoins. Palmer called SoFi's "the most advanced bank-issued stablecoin franchise in the U.S." and expects an accelerating member flywheel to help convert top-line growth into profit.

That profit conversion is the crux. SoFi has poured considerable capital into marketing and growth, and StoneX expects that spending to start paying off in earnings.

Not everyone is sold. Of the 27 analysts covering SoFi, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, another 12 say Hold, and three say Sell, based on LSEG data cited by CNBC. That's a genuinely split Street.

The sell-off has a reason. Investors have worried about SoFi's heavy investment in longer-term growth and whether it can build a deeper client base. Higher rates, with the 10-year Treasury near 5.3% at the end of September, add another question mark for a lender, though that's our read, not StoneX's.

The broader market isn't helping. September was ugly under the surface, with 75% of S&P 500 stocks closing lower as rising yields pushed money into a few mega-caps. Smaller and mid-sized names have taken the brunt of it.

That's why a rating change alone won't fix the chart. Sentiment toward SoFi has to turn, and sentiment follows numbers. Until the profit line proves the story, the stock can stay cheap for longer than bulls would like.

Stocks that fall this far on strong fundamentals can bounce hard. They can also keep falling if the next earnings report disappoints. A $25 target is a thesis, not a floor.

For anyone considering a position, the sensible approach is to size small and scale in. The next earnings report is the checkpoint: look at member growth, deposit growth and whether profit is actually rising alongside revenue.

It's also worth remembering that the 42% drop and the 40% revenue growth are happening at the same time. When a stock and its sales diverge this much, one of them eventually moves to meet the other. That's the bet StoneX and Benchmark are making.

Watch for any update on the stablecoin business, too. If it turns into real revenue, it supports the "underappreciated" argument. If it stays a talking point, the discount may last.

Bottom line: two analysts say SoFi's growth is real and the price is wrong. The proof has to show up in profit.