So Tesla’s earnings are dropping today, and honestly? The drama is chef’s kiss. After a year that’s been more up-and-down than a SpaceX rocket test, TSLA shares are sitting pretty with a 95% gain over six months. But here’s the kicker – that still only adds up to about 10% for the year. Math is wild, right?
Here’s what everyone’s actually waiting for: Will Elon finally give us the robotaxi goods, or are we getting another “two weeks” timeline? Because let’s be real, Tesla’s sky-high valuation isn’t exactly justified by selling cars anymore. It’s all about those AI dreams and robot fantasies.
The Numbers Game
Wall Street nerds are expecting Tesla to report $26.3 billion in revenue and 42 cents per share in earnings. Cool. But the real tea is in what Musk says about:
- Robotaxis: The golden goose that’s supposed to make Tesla worth a trillion dollars (according to Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who’s basically Tesla’s biggest cheerleader with a $600 price target)
- Those cheaper Model 3 and Y cars: Because apparently even Tesla realized not everyone can drop $80k on a car
- AI updates: The magic sauce that’s supposed to transform Tesla from “car company” to “tech overlord”
The Reality Check
Here’s where it gets spicy. Morningstar’s Dave Sekera thinks the market is basically treating Tesla like it’s already conquered the robot world: “We think generally the market is overestimating the amount and speed of earnings growth here. We think that to some degree, the market is really pricing in Tesla more as an AI stock rather than as an operating company.”
Translation: Y’all might be getting ahead of yourselves.
The Wild Card
Don’t forget – the federal EV tax credit got axed, which could put a dent in Tesla’s sales going forward. Sure, they crushed delivery estimates this quarter, but what happens when people can’t get that sweet government discount anymore?
Bottom Line
Tesla’s at this weird crossroads where it’s not quite a car company anymore, but it’s not quite the AI robot overlord Elon keeps promising either. Today’s earnings call (5:30 PM ET, mark your calendars) will either validate the believers or give the skeptics some serious ammunition.
Either way, it’s going to be entertaining. Because when has anything involving Elon Musk ever been boring?
The results drop after market close, so grab your popcorn and prepare for some classic Musk theater. Whether you’re team robot revolution or team “show me the money,” this one’s going to be worth watching.