So you thought you’d coast into Thanksgiving with your portfolio looking as stuffed as your turkey? Think again, friend.
This week is shaping up to be one of those “short but spicy” affairs that’ll have you checking your phone between bites of cranberry sauce. After last week’s brutal tech selloff (RIP to anyone who bought the AI dip too early), investors are basically walking on eggshells waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Here’s the thing about holiday weeks: fewer traders means wilder swings. It’s like trying to steer a shopping cart with one wobbly wheel through Black Friday crowds – technically possible, but you’re gonna hit some stuff along the way.
The Economic Data Parade
Before you slip into your food coma, the market’s serving up a buffet of potentially market-moving data:
Tuesday brings retail sales data – basically, did Americans actually spend money in September, or are we all just window shopping these days? Economists think spending grew 0.4%, down from 0.6% the month before. Translation: we’re still buying stuff, just maybe not all the stuff.
Also Tuesday: Producer Price Index – the inflation report’s nerdy cousin that actually matters a lot right now. Since we’re not getting October’s official inflation numbers (thanks, government shutdown), this September data is our best guess at whether prices are still being ridiculous.
Wednesday’s lineup includes jobless claims and consumer confidence. The jobs market has been giving everyone anxiety since summer, and Americans are apparently feeling pretty grumpy about their finances. The University of Michigan found consumer sentiment hit a three-year low in November. Yikes.
The Fed Rate Cut Roulette
Here’s where it gets interesting (and by interesting, I mean potentially wallet-damaging). The odds of a December rate cut have been bouncing around like a pinball – last week it was 42%, now it’s back up to 77%. The market is basically playing “will they or won’t they” with Jerome Powell, and your portfolio is along for the ride.
Housing: Still Frozen Solid
We’re also getting housing data this week, though “data” might be generous. The housing market has been in a deep freeze for years now – high prices, high rates, and everyone just staring at each other waiting for someone else to blink first. It’s like the world’s most expensive game of chicken.
The Silver Lining
Here’s some good news: historically, Thanksgiving week has been pretty kind to stocks. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has gained a median 0.76% during turkey week. Of course, this year we’re already down for November (thanks, tech stocks), so maybe we’re due for some good karma.
Bottom line: buckle up, keep your phone charged, and maybe don’t check your portfolio right after that second slice of pie. The market’s going to do what it’s going to do, and at least you’ll have leftovers to comfort you either way.
Happy trading, and may your gains be as abundant as your gravy.