Remember when everyone was freaking out about oil shortages? Yeah, well, plot twist: we might be drowning in the stuff next year.
Trafigura—one of those massive commodities trading firms that basically moves half the world’s oil around—just dropped some news that should make anyone with a gas-guzzling SUV pretty happy. They’re predicting what they’re calling a “super glut” of oil in 2026. And honestly? The math checks out.
Here’s the deal: Oil projects are like that friend who takes forever to get ready. These things have been in the works for literally a decade or more, and now they’re all showing up to the party at the same time. Meanwhile, global demand is basically shrugging its shoulders and saying “meh.”
Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist (fancy title for “person who’s really good at predicting when oil gets weird”), laid it out pretty simply: “Even if you were to really double what people are projecting [for demand], you’re still not making up for that supply growth.” Translation: We’re about to have way more oil than we know what to do with.
This isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere. Oil prices have been on a bit of a roller coaster this year—and not the fun kind. Brent crude (that’s the fancy international benchmark) is down 18% this year, trading around $62 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate is doing even worse at 19% down, sitting at about $58 a barrel. The only time prices got excited was during that whole Israel-Iran drama over the summer, and even that didn’t last long.
The International Energy Agency is basically nodding along with Trafigura’s prediction. They’re expecting oil supply to surge by over 3 million barrels a day in 2026 while demand growth stays “modest by historical standards.” Their exact words? The market balance looks “increasingly askew.” When energy wonks start using words like “askew,” you know things are getting interesting.
Now, there are a few wild cards that could shake things up. If sanctions get tighter or if OPEC decides to actually stick to their production cuts (shocking concept, I know), that could help balance things out. And if China—basically the world’s oil-guzzling champion—decides to slow down their purchases, well, that could make the glut even worse.
So what does this mean for regular humans? Cheaper gas, probably. Lower heating costs, maybe. And definitely some very unhappy oil executives who were banking on higher prices to justify all those expensive drilling projects.
The irony here is pretty thick. After years of everyone panicking about peak oil and supply shortages, we might be facing the opposite problem: too much of the stuff. It’s like finally getting invited to every party in town, only to realize you don’t actually want to go to any of them.
Bottom line: 2026 is shaping up to be the year oil markets get very, very interesting. And by interesting, I mean potentially chaotic in a way that might actually benefit your wallet for once.