Remember when everyone thought the internet was going to make us all millionaires? Yeah, about that…
Here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: we’re living through the exact same playbook that crashed markets in 1929 and 2000. And if history has anything to say about it, 2026 might be when the music stops.
The Three-Step Recipe for Market Disasters
Every major market meltdown follows the same script. It’s like a bad movie franchise that keeps getting sequels:
1. Shiny new tech – Radio in the 1920s, internet in the 1990s, AI today
2. Everyone can play – Margin loans then, online brokers in the dot-com era, zero-commission apps now
3. Easy money everywhere – Cheap credit flowing like water at an open bar
Sound familiar? That’s because we’re living through AI Mania 2024, complete with Nvidia going up 1,000% and everyone suddenly becoming a “tech investor.”
Why Marc Chaikin’s Warning Matters
Marc Chaikin isn’t some random guy on Twitter with strong opinions. This dude called the 2022 crash 90 days early, predicted the 2023 recovery with scary accuracy, and saw this year’s tariff-induced market tantrum coming from miles away.
Now he’s saying there’s a 65% chance of a bear market in 2026 with average losses around 20%. Many individual stocks? They could get absolutely demolished.
The S&P 500 Isn’t As Safe As You Think
Here’s a fun fact that’ll ruin your day: the S&P 500 isn’t actually diversified anymore. Just two AI stocks – Nvidia and Google – have contributed about one-third of this year’s gains. At some points, Nvidia alone added more to the index than the bottom 400 stocks combined.
That’s not diversification, that’s putting all your eggs in the AI basket and hoping nothing goes wrong.
The New Reality: Markets Move in Minutes, Not Months
Remember when market crashes took weeks to unfold? Those days are dead. The 10 biggest daily moves in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years have ALL happened in the last five years. We’re living in a world where your portfolio can get nuked before you finish your morning coffee.
Traditional stop-losses? They’re like bringing a knife to a gunfight in today’s hyper-volatile markets.
What You Can Actually Do About It
Look, I’m not saying sell everything and hide under your bed. But maybe don’t act like this party will last forever:
• Audit your holdings – Why do you own what you own? Write it down. If the answer is “because it went up,” that’s not a strategy.
• Actually diversify – If your portfolio is 80% tech stocks, you’re not diversified, you’re gambling.
• Have an exit plan – Hope is not a strategy. Neither is “diamond hands.”
The pattern is always the same: euphoria, then reality, then tears. The only question is whether you’ll see it coming or get caught holding the bag when the music stops.
Stay smart out there.