So here’s a plot twist nobody saw coming: Michael Burry, the guy who basically invented betting against things that seem too good to be true, just told the internet he’s not shorting Tesla. Yes, the same Tesla he called “ridiculously overvalued” literally days ago.
For those keeping score at home, this is the same Michael Burry who made his name (and a Christian Bale movie) by betting against the housing market in 2008. The man has a PhD in spotting bubbles from space. So when someone on Twitter asked if he’d short Tesla right now, his two-word response was refreshingly honest: “I am not.”
Now, before you think Burry’s gone soft, let’s be clear—he still thinks Tesla is living in fantasy land. Just this week on his Substack, he wrote: “Tesla sales falling. It is a ridiculously overvalued stock.” But then he dropped the real wisdom: “Shorting it has been dangerous, and the puts are expensive. So maybe not much to do here for most people, except sell it if they can.”
Translation: “Yeah, it’s overpriced, but trying to time when the market realizes that is like trying to catch a falling knife while riding a unicycle.”
This comes right after Tesla did something pretty unusual—they actually gave sales forecasts that were weaker than expected. In Tesla world, that’s like Elon Musk admitting he might not colonize Mars by next Tuesday. It’s rare, and it got people’s attention.
Here’s the thing about shorting Tesla: it’s been the financial equivalent of touching a hot stove repeatedly. Burry himself learned this the hard way. Back in 2021, he put $530 million on the line betting against Tesla, only to close out the position a few months later. Even Danny Moses, another “Big Short” veteran, threw in the towel on Tesla shorts in 2024, basically saying, “You can’t fight crazy with logic.”
Moses recently told Business Insider he wouldn’t bet against mega-cap tech right now, despite thinking valuations are nuts. His partner Porter Collins went even further, calling Tesla “simply a meme stock driven primarily by retail speculation and adoration for Musk.” Ouch.
So what’s the takeaway here? Even the pros who made their careers spotting overvalued assets are sitting this one out. It’s not that they think Tesla is fairly priced—they just know that “overvalued” and “going down tomorrow” are two very different things.
Tesla stock doesn’t trade on fundamentals; it trades on vibes, memes, and whatever Elon tweeted at 3 AM. And betting against vibes? That’s a young person’s game.
The smart money isn’t necessarily buying Tesla, but it’s definitely not shorting it either. Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all—especially when the stock in question has a cult following and a CEO who treats Twitter like his personal financial playground.
As Burry’s restraint shows us: being right about a stock being overvalued is only half the battle. The other half is surviving long enough to be proven right. And with Tesla, that timeline remains anyone’s guess.