Look, I know what you’re thinking. “Space stocks? Really? Didn’t we already do this dance in 2021 when Virgin Galactic crashed harder than a SpaceX prototype?”
Fair point. But here’s the thing – 2026 might actually be different. And no, I’m not just saying that because I watched too much sci-fi over the holidays.
Three things are lining up that could send space stocks into actual orbit (pun absolutely intended):
1. Uncle Sam Just Got Serious About Space
The White House dropped a space executive order in December that’s basically Washington saying “we’re done messing around.” They want Americans back on the moon by 2028, a commercial space station to replace the ISS by 2030, and – here’s the kicker – they want to buy everything from private companies instead of building it themselves.
Translation: Instead of NASA spending 20 years and $50 billion to build one rocket, they’re going to write checks to companies that can actually deliver stuff. That’s a game-changer for publicly traded space companies.
2. Data Centers in Space (Yes, Really)
I know, I know. It sounds like something a crypto bro would pitch after too many energy drinks. But stick with me here.
Nvidia is already profiling startups building GPU clusters in orbit. Google announced they’re launching AI data centers in space by 2027. Even Elon is talking about using SpaceX to power xAI’s computing needs from orbit.
Will this replace your local AWS data center? Obviously not. But if “compute in space” becomes even remotely credible, Wall Street will bid up everything from launch companies to space-grade cooling systems faster than you can say “orbital infrastructure.”
3. The SpaceX IPO That Could Change Everything
Here’s the big one: SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a 2026 IPO that could value the company north of $1 trillion. That’s not just another stock listing – that’s a category-defining moment.
Remember what Tesla did for EVs? Every electric vehicle stock got dragged along for the ride, whether they deserved it or not. A SpaceX IPO would do the same thing for space stocks, pulling in generalist investors who suddenly need exposure to “the most exciting sector of 2026.”
The Plays Worth Watching
If this thesis plays out, here’s where the action could be:
Rocket Lab (RKLB) just landed an $805 million contract – their biggest ever. They’ve evolved from just launching rockets to building entire space systems, which is exactly what the government wants to buy.
Planet Labs (PL) is crushing it with Earth observation contracts, including a massive $260 million deal with Germany. When governments want real-time intelligence, they’re writing checks to Planet.
Redwire (RDW) is building the infrastructure for commercial space stations. Not sexy, but someone’s got to provide the solar panels and manufacturing equipment for our orbital future.
The Reality Check
Look, space stocks are volatile as hell. They’re small-cap, sentiment-driven, and allergic to bad news. This could easily turn into another 2021-style hype cycle that ends in tears.
But here’s what’s different: This time, there’s actual government urgency, real private capital, and a clear path to public market liquidity. Plus, it’s all wrapped up in the AI narrative that Wall Street can’t get enough of.
So yeah, space stocks might be about to go parabolic. Just don’t bet the farm on data centers orbiting Mars quite yet.