So, apparently while most of us were nursing New Year’s hangovers, the U.S. military decided to pull off what sounds like a Hollywood blockbuster plot in Venezuela. “Operation Liberty Dawn” – because nothing says “we’re here to help” like a name that sounds like it came from a Tom Clancy novel.
Here’s the deal: They nabbed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in what officials are calling a takedown of a “narco-terrorist regime.” Your Twitter feed probably exploded with hot takes, but let’s talk about what this actually means for your portfolio.
The Oil Goldmine Nobody Could Touch
Venezuela has been sitting on the world’s largest proven oil reserves – we’re talking 303 billion barrels, which makes Saudi Arabia look like they’re running a lemonade stand. But here’s the kicker: their oil production has been absolutely tanking for years. They went from pumping 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to barely scraping together 1 million today.
Why? Picture this: leaking pipelines, rusting refineries, and all the skilled workers fleeing the country faster than you can say “economic collapse.” It’s been like watching someone inherit a Ferrari and then use it as a planter.
Enter Chevron: The Kid Who Never Left
While other oil giants like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips packed up and left Venezuela after getting burned in 2007, Chevron (CVX) was that friend who stuck around through all the drama. They’ve been quietly pumping about 250,000 barrels per day and shipping most of it back to the U.S., even with all the sanctions flying around.
Now that there’s a new sheriff in town (literally), Chevron is basically the only major U.S. oil company with their boots already on the ground. While everyone else would have to start from scratch, CVX can hit the ground running.
Why This Actually Matters
Trump specifically mentioned “very large” firms like Chevron leading the charge to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Translation: Chevron is about to get first dibs on some seriously lucrative contracts.
Here’s the smart money angle: Chevron’s Gulf Coast refineries are perfectly set up to handle Venezuelan heavy crude. It’s like having the right key for a very expensive lock. This could mean fatter profit margins while global oil prices are doing their usual roller coaster impression.
If Venezuela can get back to pumping 2-3 million barrels per day (which experts think is totally doable), we’re looking at a major shift in global oil supply.
The Bottom Line
Look, geopolitics aside, this is one of those rare moments where a company’s patient strategy might actually pay off big time. While everyone else was writing off Venezuela, Chevron kept the lights on. Now they’re positioned to be the main character in what could be oil’s biggest comeback story.
Is CVX a buy? Well, let’s just say if you’re looking for an oil stock that’s not just riding the wave but actually steering the ship, Chevron just moved to the top of the class.