Remember when everyone was obsessing over whether ChatGPT would steal their job? Plot twist: it’s actually about to make a boring metal incredibly sexy. And no, I’m not talking about lithium or rare earths – I’m talking about good old copper.
Here’s the thing nobody’s talking about: while we’re all watching AI stocks bounce around like caffeinated squirrels, the real money might be in the pipes and wires that keep these digital brains running.
The $3 Trillion Reality Check
So here’s where it gets wild. According to JLL (the real estate folks who actually know where all the data centers are going), we’re looking at nearly 100 gigawatts of new data centers between 2026 and 2030. That’s basically doubling global capacity and requiring up to $3 trillion in infrastructure investment.
But here’s the kicker – these aren’t your dad’s server farms. AI data centers are like the difference between a Honda Civic and a Formula 1 car. They’re power-hungry beasts that need exponentially more copper for all that cabling and power distribution.
How much more? Try 572,000 tonnes annually by 2028, according to BloombergNEF. That’s like adding another Chile – the world’s biggest copper producer – to global demand. In four years.
The Supply Problem (Spoiler: It’s Bad)
Now, if this were software, we’d just download more copper, right? Wrong. This is where reality gets messy.
It takes over 15 years to discover, permit, and build a new copper mine. Fifteen. Years. ChatGPT launched in 2023, so even if mining companies started digging that day, most new copper wouldn’t hit the market until 2038.
Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group is already predicting deficits of 150,000 tonnes next year, with UBS calling for 400,000 tonnes. The International Energy Agency? They’re basically throwing up their hands, saying we’ll have a 30% supply gap by 2035 even if every announced project actually happens.
Why This Matters to Your Wallet
This is what economists call a “commodity supercycle” – basically when supply and demand get so out of whack that prices go on a multi-year rocket ride. Think oil in the 2000s, but with more robots.
The technical charts are showing what’s called an “ascending triangle pattern” in commodity prices – which is trader-speak for “this thing is coiling up like a spring.” And when springs release, things tend to move fast.
Smart money is already positioning. Legendary investor Eric Fry called this supercycle back in 2020 and his readers made 1,350% on Freeport-McMoRan call options. Now he’s eyeing the next leg up.
The Bottom Line
While everyone’s debating which AI stock to buy, the real opportunity might be in the unglamorous stuff that makes AI possible. Because at the end of the day, even the smartest artificial intelligence needs good old-fashioned copper to think.
Sometimes the best trades hide in plain sight. And right now, copper is looking pretty shiny.