Remember when your mom told you everything happens for a reason? Turns out she was onto something – at least when it comes to the stock market.
Here’s a wild story that’ll make you rethink everything: Back in 1854, people in London were dropping dead from cholera faster than you could say “diversified portfolio.” Everyone blamed bad air (because apparently that was the 19th-century equivalent of blaming Mercury retrograde). But this doctor named John Snow – no, not the Game of Thrones guy – had a different theory.
He mapped out every death and found they all clustered around one water pump. Remove the pump handle, boom – outbreak over. What looked like chaos was actually a pattern hiding in plain sight.
Plot twist: The stock market works exactly the same way.
While you’re over here stress-eating because your portfolio looks like a Jackson Pollock painting, there are actually predictable seasonal patterns happening right under your nose. And no, I’m not talking about the tired old “sell in May and go away” advice your uncle gives at Thanksgiving dinner.
I’m talking about stock-specific seasons that repeat with the reliability of your friend who always orders the same thing at restaurants.
Take Target, for example. Between June 22 and July 21 every year for the past 15 years, this stock has gone up. Not sometimes. Not usually. Every. Single. Time. We’re talking 100% accuracy, with an average gain of 5.2%. In 2025, it delivered a solid 10.3% during its “summer season.”
Home Depot? Same deal. From June 15 to July 27, it’s risen 93% of the time over 15 years, averaging 4.7% gains. Last year it popped 6.7% during its seasonal window.
Now, before you start thinking this is some mystical market voodoo, there’s actual science behind it. Companies have earnings cycles, consumer spending patterns, and industry-specific rhythms that create these predictable windows. It’s like knowing when your favorite restaurant has happy hour – except instead of cheap drinks, you get cheap entry points into quality stocks.
The folks at TradeSmith have built software that crunches data on thousands of stocks to identify these patterns down to the exact day. Their backtesting shows seasonal trades delivered 857% total growth over 18 years – more than double what the S&P 500 managed. Even in 2007 (aka the year everything went sideways), they still averaged 37.9% annual returns.
Here’s the kicker: Most investors are completely oblivious to this. They’re out here playing checkers while the market is playing 4D chess with a calendar.
The beauty of seasonal investing isn’t that it eliminates risk – nothing does that except maybe hiding your money under a mattress (and even then, inflation is coming for you). It’s that it gives you an edge based on historical patterns that repeat more reliably than your Netflix recommendations.
So next time someone tells you the market is “random” or “unpredictable,” just remember: John Snow found order in chaos with nothing but a notebook and a street map. Imagine what you could do with actual data and a decent Wi-Fi connection.
The market has seasons. The question is: Are you dressed for the weather?