President Trump just committed $12 billion to stockpiling strategic minerals, and the rare earth sector is scrambling to figure out what it means. The initiative, dubbed “Project Vault,” is essentially a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for critical minerals — neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and the other elements that power everything from AI data centers to missile guidance systems.
The market reaction was immediate. Critical Metals Corp (CRML), which controls a massive rare earth deposit in Greenland, surged 35% on the announcement alone. And this is just the opening act. Project Vault combines $10 billion in Export-Import Bank financing with $2 billion in private capital to create guaranteed federal demand for domestically sourced minerals. When the U.S. government becomes your biggest customer, your risk profile changes overnight.
Here is why this matters: China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of refining capacity. For decades, Western producers exited the business because the economics were brutal — low prices, high environmental costs, and a Chinese competitor willing to operate at razor-thin margins. The result is that America’s most critical supply chains depend on a single foreign supplier that has already weaponized export restrictions during trade disputes.
The companies positioned to benefit read like a who’s-who of domestic mining. MP Materials (MP) operates the only functioning rare earth mine in America at Mountain Pass, California, and is expanding into refining. USA Rare Earth (USAR) is developing a heavy rare earth project in Texas focused on military applications. Energy Fuels (UUUU) runs one of the few U.S. facilities capable of producing separated rare earth oxides at its White Mesa Mill in Utah.
But there is a catch investors need to understand: this is not an overnight trade. Industry analysts estimate three to seven years before meaningful domestic capacity comes online. Mining projects face permitting delays, environmental reviews, and capital requirements running into hundreds of millions. What Project Vault changes is not the timeline — it is the risk profile. Federal backing de-risks financing and provides revenue visibility that these projects have never had.
The infrastructure plays are worth watching too. Building domestic rare earth capacity requires specialized chemicals (Olin), heavy mining equipment (Caterpillar), and processing facility construction (Fluor). The opportunity extends well beyond the miners themselves.
Rare earth supply security has become a bipartisan priority — both recent administrations have invoked the Defense Production Act to accelerate critical mineral development. For investors, this is less about chasing a commodity spike and more about positioning for a multi-year policy tailwind. When Washington decides something is a national security priority and backs it with $12 billion, the smart money pays attention.