Rivian just did something most EV startups never manage: it gave Wall Street a reason to believe.
Shares of RIVN exploded more than 20% after the company posted Q4 results that beat on both the top and bottom lines — then dropped guidance that had bulls pounding the table. Revenue came in at $1.29 billion versus the $1.26 billion expected. Adjusted losses were 54 cents per share, handily beating the 68-cent loss analysts had penciled in. But it was the 2026 delivery guidance that lit the fuse: 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a 47% to 59% jump from 2025.
The catalyst behind all this optimism has a name — the R2. Rivian’s next-generation midsize SUV, priced around $45,000, is expected to launch in Q2 2026. CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC the R2 will become the “majority of the volume” by end of 2027. The vehicle is designed to slash build material costs in half and dramatically simplify production. More details on pricing and options drop March 12 — mark it on the calendar.
There’s another number that matters: Rivian achieved its first-ever annual gross profit in 2025 — $144 million. Yes, the company still lost $3.6 billion on a net basis (down from $4.75 billion in 2024), and 2026 guidance calls for another $1.8 to $2.1 billion in adjusted pre-tax losses. But the trajectory has shifted. The bleeding is slowing. And with $6.6 billion in total liquidity on hand, Rivian has the cash runway to make it through the transition.
Here’s the catch for traders: the stock was trading around $14 before this pop. Even after a 20% move, we’re talking about a company that’s still down massively from its IPO highs above $170. The market is essentially saying, “We believe you can execute the R2 launch.” If they do, there’s a real re-rating ahead. If production stumbles or the $45K price point doesn’t hold, the stock gives all this back and then some.
Rivian called 2025 a “foundational year” and 2026 an “inflection point.” For investors willing to stomach volatility and continued losses, the R2 launch is the make-or-break event. The next 6 months will tell us whether this is the EV company that finally graduates from “promise” to “profit.”