Gold just pulled back below $5,000 — and most investors are panicking about the wrong thing. While traders obsess over daily candles and short-term volatility, the structural case for gold has never been stronger. Louis Navellier, one of Wall Street’s most respected quantitative analysts, published his thesis this morning: gold will hit $10,000 an ounce by 2030. That’s a double from here. And if you zoom out even slightly, the floor underneath this metal is made of concrete.
Here’s why. Central banks aren’t just buying gold — they’re hoarding it at a pace we’ve never seen. The People’s Bank of China just logged its 15th consecutive month of gold purchases. BRICS nations have collectively breached 5,000 tonnes in reserves as part of a coordinated push to build a gold-backed alternative to the dollar-dominated reserve system. This isn’t speculative buying. This is sovereign-level de-dollarization, and it’s accelerating. Goldman Sachs sees $5,400 by year-end 2026. J.P. Morgan and UBS are even more aggressive, targeting $6,200 to $6,300 before December.
The pullback from January’s highs near $5,100 spooked retail traders, especially with China’s Lunar New Year holidays dampening near-term demand. But Navellier argues the floor sits around $4,500 — and that’s a level the metal has held convincingly. Every dip in this cycle has been bought aggressively by central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional allocators rotating out of bonds into hard assets.
What makes the $10,000 target provocative but not crazy is the math behind fiscal dominance. The U.S. is running $3 trillion annual deficits. The CBO projects debt-to-GDP crossing 100% this year. Interest payments on the national debt will consume over a quarter of federal revenue by 2030. In that environment, gold doesn’t just hold value — it reprices everything denominated in dollars. The bull case isn’t about gold going up. It’s about the dollar going down, with gold as the mirror image.
Smart money isn’t watching the daily chart. It’s buying the dip and looking at 2030. If Navellier, Goldman, and the world’s central banks are all on the same side of this trade, you might want to ask yourself why you’re not.