Gold just did something it has never done before: traded comfortably above $5,000 an ounce. And if Wall Street’s biggest banks are right, this is the middle of the move — not the end.
Gold futures rose $43 on Friday to $5,040, pushing further above the psychologically massive $5,000 level that traders have been eyeing for months. The week has been bumpy — gold is actually down about $9.50 since Monday — but the broader trajectory is unmistakable. A year ago, gold was trading around $2,900. It’s now up over 70% in roughly 12 months, making it one of the best-performing major assets on the planet.
The analyst targets read like science fiction from two years ago. UBS has a high-end target of $5,400 for 2026. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs are calling for an average around $5,055 by year-end. HSBC is anchored at $5,000. But the real eye-openers are the outlier calls: SAMCO Securities sees gold testing $7,000, and SBG Securities published a target of $10,000 — not someday, but within the next few years. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research agrees, targeting $6,000 by year-end 2026 and $10,000 by end of 2029.
What’s driving this? Three forces that aren’t going away anytime soon. First, central banks are buying gold at a pace that would make Fort Knox blush — 863 tonnes in 2025, with another 850 tonnes expected this year. China, India, and emerging market central banks are diversifying away from dollar reserves, and gold is the beneficiary. Second, geopolitical risk is elevated everywhere you look — from U.S.-Iran tensions pushing oil to six-month highs to the tariff chaos now playing out in the Supreme Court. Third, the interest rate picture is turning bullish for gold. Markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year, and SBG argues that if we get three, gold could accelerate toward $7,000 by December.
Here’s the thing about gold at $5,000: it still represents a fraction of global financial assets. The entire gold market is roughly $16-17 trillion. U.S. Treasuries alone are over $30 trillion. When institutional allocators decide they need more portfolio insurance — and the macro backdrop is screaming that they should — the flows into gold could dwarf what we’ve already seen.
The trade isn’t just physical gold, either. Mining stocks (GDX), gold streaming companies like Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals, and even silver (which just crossed $80) are all riding the wave. If you’ve been watching gold from the sidelines thinking you missed it, the biggest banks in the world are telling you the move hasn’t even hit halftime yet.