When the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, the global energy market didn’t just flinch — it convulsed. European natural gas prices spiked 70% in a single week. Buyers who had pivoted from Russian gas to Middle Eastern LNG suppliers suddenly found themselves scrambling again. And one American company is sitting in exactly the right spot to profit: Venture Global.
Venture Global (NYSE: VG) is one of the fastest-growing LNG producers in the United States, which has quietly surpassed both Australia and Qatar as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Founded just over a decade ago by former banker Mike Sabel and lawyer Bob Pender, the company took a modular approach to building LNG facilities — smaller units, factory-fabricated off-site, assembled fast. Its first project, Calcasieu Pass, went from investment decision to first export in just 29 months, one of the fastest builds in industry history.
Here’s where it gets interesting for investors. Unlike competitor Cheniere Energy, which has locked in roughly 90% of its output on long-term contracts, Venture Global has deliberately left 30% of its production available for spot market sales. In normal times, that’s a risk. Right now, it’s a goldmine. The spread between U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices and European TTF benchmarks has ballooned to as much as $15 per MMBtu. Management has said that every $1 change in that spread moves full-year EBITDA by $575 to $625 million. Do the math on a $15 spread and the windfall is staggering.
The company is guiding for $5.2 to $5.8 billion in EBITDA for 2026, based on assumptions that now look conservative. UBS analysts had the stock at just 9.6x forward earnings before the conflict even began — and those estimates haven’t been updated for the current energy shock. With plans to become the second-largest U.S. LNG producer behind only Cheniere, and founders who still own roughly half the company, Venture Global has the kind of aligned incentives and structural tailwind that smart money loves. If energy prices stay elevated — and there’s no sign they won’t — this could be one of the most underpriced energy plays on the market.
