While everyone is fixated on oil prices, the real money in this energy crisis might be in liquefied natural gas. And one company is positioned to benefit more than almost anyone else.
Venture Global (NYSE: VG) has quietly grown from nothing into one of the largest LNG producers in the United States — which itself has surpassed Australia and Qatar as the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel. Founded just over a decade ago by former banker Mike Sabel and lawyer Bob Pender, the company took a radically different approach to building LNG facilities, and it is paying off in a spectacular way.
The traditional LNG plant costs upwards of $50 billion and takes years to build. Venture Global said no thanks to that. They designed smaller modular units that allow factories to fabricate pieces off-site, slashing construction timelines. Their inaugural project, Calcasieu Pass, went from final investment decision to exporting fuel in just 29 months — one of the fastest LNG plants ever constructed. The industry was skeptical. The results shut them up.
Here is why the timing matters. The war in the Middle East has created a global oil and gas supply shock similar to what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off Europe’s gas supply in 2022. But this one could be worse. After the Ukraine crisis, buyers pivoted to Middle Eastern LNG suppliers to replace Russian imports. Now those suppliers are threatened too. Natural gas prices in Europe spiked 70% in a single week after the conflict began. Buyers are scrambling to secure new cargoes at massive premiums.
About 70% of global LNG output is sold on long-term contracts, making it extremely hard for panic buyers to find supply on the open market. Prices have spiraled as a result. And this is exactly where Venture Global’s strategy gets interesting.
Unlike its main competitor Cheniere Energy, which has locked in nearly all its output on fixed contracts, Venture Global has intentionally left 30% of its sales exposed to the spot market. In a normal pricing environment, that is a risk. In the current environment — with spot LNG prices through the roof — it is a potential windfall. Management has disclosed that a $1.00 per MMBtu change in fixed liquefaction fees impacts full-year adjusted EBITDA by $575 million to $625 million. With spot prices elevated well above historical norms, that 30% of uncontracted supply could generate outsized returns.
The company expects full-year EBITDA north of $5 billion and plans to become the second-largest LNG producer in the U.S. behind only Cheniere. Total global LNG supply is forecast to hit 460 to 484 million tonnes in 2026 as new capacity comes online from the U.S. and Qatar — but demand is outstripping supply growth thanks to the geopolitical chaos.
The founders still own roughly half the company, which is the kind of skin-in-the-game alignment investors love to see. For traders looking for a way to play the energy crisis beyond simply buying crude oil futures, Venture Global offers a differentiated angle with a company that built a better mousetrap at exactly the right time. Sometimes being the fastest gun in the west is all that matters.
