Forget the doom-and-gloom smartphone narrative for a minute. Morgan Stanley just dropped its latest AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey, and the numbers for Apple are borderline absurd.
The global blended iPhone upgrade rate hit 37% — a 2 percentage point jump from last year and the highest reading in the survey’s entire history. In China, the market that’s been giving Apple investors sleepless nights, upgrade intentions surged 9 percentage points year-over-year. Also a record. Switching rates to Apple? Five-year high.
Analyst Erik Woodring maintained his Overweight rating with a $315 price target, projecting iPhone revenue growth of 6% for fiscal 2026 — three full points above the Street’s 3% estimate. If his numbers pan out, Apple would be posting its strongest back-to-back iPhone growth in over a decade. While the rest of the smartphone industry is bracing for a price-driven demand hit from rising memory costs, Apple appears to be in a league of its own.
But here’s where it gets really interesting: 27% of surveyed iPhone owners said they’re interested in a foldable iPhone — a device Apple hasn’t even released yet. In China, that number jumps to nearly 40%. Morgan Stanley expects the foldable to launch in Fall 2026, and Woodring called it “a bigger driver than Apple Intelligence.” That’s a remarkable admission, given how much Apple has bet on its AI push.
Bank of America trimmed its price target slightly to $320 but kept a Buy rating, specifically citing the foldable as a major catalyst. Bernstein is at $340 with an Outperform rating, pointing to Apple’s strategy of expanding its price spectrum to capture more market share. The analyst community is essentially saying: even if AI doesn’t excite consumers yet, the hardware cycle alone is enough to drive the stock.
There is one wrinkle. Consumer willingness to pay for Apple Intelligence features actually deteriorated year-over-year in the survey. The company’s AI story isn’t landing with consumers the way it is with investors. That gap will have to close eventually — but for now, the raw upgrade demand and foldable anticipation are doing the heavy lifting. With a $3.64 trillion market cap and a P/E just above 31, Apple isn’t cheap. But the data suggests the next upgrade supercycle might just be getting started.
