Remember when everyone thought AI would destroy the stock market? Well, William Blair decided to stop panicking and actually think about which companies might survive the robot apocalypse. Spoiler alert: some will, some won’t, and the difference is way more interesting than you’d think.
The analysts basically asked themselves: “If AI changes everything, shouldn’t we change how we rate these companies?” Fair point. So they built a new framework with four criteria, each worth five points, for a perfect score of 20. Spoiler: nobody got 20.
Here’s what they’re looking at:
Ability to Execute — Can the leadership team actually pull this off? Do they have a winning culture? Have they shipped products people actually want? Boring stuff, but it matters.
AI Defensibility — This is the juicy part. Do they have proprietary data? Are they so integrated into your workflow that switching costs a fortune? Can they lock you in? The companies with moats win here.
Pricing Model — This is where seat-based pricing gets absolutely roasted. If you’re charging per user and AI can replace those users, you’re toast. Consumption-based and usage-aligned models? Those are the future.
Organic Revenue Acceleration — Simple question: Is AI actually making them money? Either it’s a growth tailwind or it’s not.
The Winners:
Everpure (PSTG) and DigitalOcean (DOCN) both scored 19/20 — basically perfect. Everpure’s storage platform is crushing it across the board. DigitalOcean only lost a point on execution, which is wild for a cloud provider.
Snowflake (SNOW), MongoDB (MDB), Rubrik (RBRK), Microsoft (MSFT), and JFrog (FROG) all scored 16-17. These are the “we’re probably fine” stocks. Microsoft got dinged for its pricing model and revenue acceleration prospects, which is hilarious considering it’s Microsoft. But hey, even giants have weak spots.
The Losers:
Backblaze (BLZE), N-able (NABL), GitLab (GTLB), and Dropbox (DBX) got downgraded to underperform. Dropbox was the worst, scoring just 8/20. The analysts basically said: “Your pricing model is outdated, your execution is shaky, and your AI tools are unproven.” Ouch.
What This Actually Means:
William Blair isn’t saying “buy these seven stocks.” They’re saying these seven are positioned better than the others to survive and thrive in an AI-dominated world. The losers aren’t necessarily going bankrupt — they’re just more exposed to disruption.
The real lesson? It’s not about whether a company uses AI. It’s about whether AI uses them. Can they integrate it into their core product? Can they charge for it without cannibalizing their existing business model? Do they have the talent and track record to execute?
If you’re picking AI stocks, this framework is basically a cheat sheet. Look for companies with defensible moats, flexible pricing, and a track record of actually shipping. Everything else is just noise.
