Traders already have their hands full with an oil shock from the Iran war. Now add this: climate scientists warn there is a growing probability that a “super El Niño” develops later this year — and the timing could not be worse. European climate models show an elevated chance of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rising 2 degrees Celsius or more above normal. That is the threshold for what researchers informally call a super El Niño, and it tends to devastate agricultural output across multiple continents simultaneously.
Here is the convergence problem that should have every food-commodity investor paying attention. Roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began in late February, shipping traffic through the Strait has virtually ground to a halt. That has sent fertilizer prices skyrocketing at precisely the moment the U.S. planting season is ramping up. The Iran war is already squeezing farmers. A super El Niño would be a second body blow.
UBS chief economist Paul Donovan put it bluntly: “2026 might produce a super El Niño weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen.” In other words, the fertilizer price shock may not even be the biggest agricultural threat this year — it could be overshadowed by a weather event powerful enough to wreck crop yields across the tropics. El Niño typically hammers cocoa, food oils, rice, sugar, bananas, coffee, and soy-fed meat prices. A super version of the event compounds all of those risks at once.
The United Nations World Food Programme already warned that the number of acutely food-insecure people could jump by 45 million if the Iran war persists beyond June and oil stays above $100 per barrel. That would add to the 318 million people already facing food insecurity globally. For investors, the signal is clear: agricultural commodity plays — particularly fertilizer producers, grain exporters, and food-supply-chain stocks — deserve a serious look right now, before these dual risks get fully priced in. The window where markets are still catching up to the magnitude of this convergence is narrowing fast.
