Remember when everyone was worried that Big Tech had already spent all its AI money and we’d hit peak capex? Yeah, about that. Goldman Sachs just threw cold water on that theory, and honestly, they might be onto something.
Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, dropped a note this week saying “a capex supercycle is taking hold.” Translation: the spending spree is just getting warmed up. Hyperscalers are expected to drop $757 billion on infrastructure this year—that’s 84% more than last year. And it gets better (or worse, depending on your portfolio): they’re planning to spend another $920 billion in 2027.
Here’s why this matters for your stock picks: when companies are throwing money at infrastructure like it’s going out of style, the vendors selling them the picks and shovels make bank. And in a market where multiple expansion is basically dead and buried, earnings growth is the only game in town. Companies benefiting from this capex wave are seeing their earnings revised upward, which is basically catnip for investors right now.
Goldman identified 16 U.S. tech stocks that are positioned to ride this wave. The list reads like a who’s who of the infrastructure-industrial complex: Apple, Broadcom, AMD, and Lam Research are the heavy hitters. But there are also some smaller names like TD SYNNEX and Nebius that could surprise you if you’re looking for less obvious plays.
The semiconductors and chip equipment makers are the obvious winners here—companies like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Broadcom are basically the shovels being sold during the gold rush. But don’t sleep on the connectors and components makers like Amphenol and TE Connectivity, or the software plays like Oracle and Cadence Design Systems. They’re all getting a piece of the action.
The valuations are spicy, though. Some of these names are trading at forward P/E ratios that would make your grandmother nervous. Lam Research is at 46x, AMD is at 50x, and MongoDB is sitting at a bonkers 52x. But here’s the thing: if earnings keep growing at the pace Goldman expects, those multiples might actually make sense.
The bottom line? The AI capex story isn’t over—it’s barely begun. And if you believe Goldman’s thesis (and their track record suggests you should), the companies selling the infrastructure are about to have a very good time.
