Here’s a story that’ll change how you think about investing in this AI selloff: Along the Myanmar-China border, wealthy collectors gamble on jadeite boulders. They’re gray, ugly, bowling-ball-sized rocks. Some hide jade worth millions. Most hide nothing. The kicker? You don’t know which is which until you crack it open—after you’ve already paid full price.
Sounds like the AI market right now, doesn’t it?
The first half of 2026 has been brutal for growth stocks. But here’s the thing—underneath all that pain, some of these companies are sitting on serious fundamentals. We’re talking triple-digit revenue growth, expanding margins, and multibillion-dollar government contracts. The problem is the tape is broken, and buying a stock in freefall is like paying full price for an uncut stone.
So don’t do it. Not yet.
Instead, steal a page from the jade traders: drill a test hole first. Let the technicals confirm a bounce before you commit your money. It’s the difference between gambling and investing.
The Gem With a Cracked Chart
Take Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI). Down 47% from highs. Lost the 50-day, lost the 100-day, broke the March high. The chart is genuinely ugly. But crack open the fundamentals? Gorgeous. We’re looking at a company tracking 125% revenue growth this year to over $1 billion, then 160% next year to nearly $2.7 billion. Gross margins are marching from 30% toward 40%. EBITDA flips from a loss to $500 million-plus by 2027. And you get all that for 34 times forward earnings.
The jade is glowing. But I don’t catch falling knives—I buy bounces. Wait for AAOI to prove support, then buy the bounce. That’s your test hole.
When the Chart Says No
Palantir (PLTR) is the opposite lesson. It’s trapped under a downward-sloping 200-day moving average. Hit it three times. Rejected three times. Nothing good happens below the 200-day. The buy zone activates when PLTR retakes that line around $158 and holds above it. Until then? Pass.
The Space Play That Actually Has Proof
Redwire (RDW) over Ascent Solar (ASTI). Why? Redwire powers the International Space Station. It has the contracts, the track record, the incumbency. In an innovation tournament, the later rounds reward the survivors. Redwire has been surviving scrutiny in orbit for years.
The chart demanded honesty—we lost the $15 buy zone. But the stock is holding the $10-$11 area where the 100-day and 200-day converge. That’s your next opportunity.
The Nuclear Play With Dual Optionality
Cameco (CCJ) is the cheaper nuclear alternative to BWX Technologies. Here’s why: Cameco is a major uranium producer (uranium demand rises as nuclear buildout accelerates), and it owns a large stake in Westinghouse, which just won a massive U.S. government contract to build new reactors. That’s dual optionality—commodity producer on one side, government-backed buildout on the other.
The technicals are challenged, but heavy support sits between $90-$100. I believe that floor holds.
The Bottom Line
The semiconductor complex doubled, then pulled back 10%. Historically, 10-15% pullbacks in AI infrastructure ETFs are the buy zone. We’re there now. But don’t fight the market. Wait for the drill sample. When the tape confirms a rebound, get in the game.
