Summer’s here, and your neighbors are doing what Americans do best—dropping serious cash on backyard upgrades. That new in-ground pool across the street? It’s not just a sign of good taste; it’s a signal that the pool industry is finally waking up from its post-pandemic nap.
Here’s the thing: after getting absolutely hammered when interest rates shot up, the pool business is stabilizing. And that means there’s money to be made if you know where to look.
**The Setup: Pools Are Back on the Menu**
Remember 2022? Stimulus checks were flying, interest rates were basically free, and Americans were obsessed with their backyards. Pool companies were printing money. Then reality hit. Interest rates skyrocketed, and suddenly a $50,000 in-ground pool didn’t seem like such an “affordable luxury” anymore. Pool demand cratered—we’re talking a 27% collapse in sales.
But here’s where it gets interesting: that collapse has stopped. The market isn’t booming yet, but it’s not bleeding out either. It’s flat. And in the investing world, flat after a crash is actually a pretty bullish signal. It means the bottom’s in.
**Enter Latham Group (SWIM): The Pool Play**
Latham Group is basically the Costco of in-ground pools—they install roughly one in every five new pools in America. They’re particularly dominant in fiberglass pools, which is where the real growth story is hiding.
Here’s why: fiberglass pools are premade shells that take two to three days to install, versus eight to sixteen weeks for traditional concrete pools. They’re cheaper, require less maintenance, and American homeowners are finally catching on. Fiberglass has climbed from 17% of the market in 2019 to about 23-24% today, and it’s growing at double digits in states like Florida. In Australia, 70% of pools are fiberglass. We’re nowhere near that penetration yet, which means serious runway ahead.
**The Numbers Don’t Lie**
Last year was Latham’s first profitable year since going public in 2021. Sales rose 7% to $546 million, and management is guiding for another 9% growth in 2026. That’s solid, but here’s the kicker: if the broader consumer spending on luxury items (boats, high-end decking, travel) is any indication, Latham could blow past those numbers.
Plus, roughly half their revenue comes from pool liner and cover replacements—recurring revenue that doesn’t depend on new pool construction. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.
**The Insider Signal**
In May, two Latham insiders bought stock in the open market with no selling by anyone else. That’s the kind of signal that matters. CFO buys especially tend to outperform because executives don’t buy stocks for fun—they buy them because they think they’re going higher.
**The Bottom Line**
The pool industry is turning a corner. Latham’s got the market position, the product tailwinds, and insider confidence. Your neighbor’s new pool isn’t just a status symbol—it’s a data point suggesting that discretionary spending is alive and well in America’s wealthier zip codes.
Sometimes the best investment ideas are hiding in plain sight, splashing around in your backyard.
