Remember when everyone was hyped about SpaceX going public? Yeah, that didn’t age well.
When SpaceX hit the market, the skeptics were out in force—and honestly, they’re having a field day right now. The company’s valuation seemed bonkers to some, the long-term promises felt like science fiction (ironic, given the company), and retail investors were getting a bigger slice of the pie than usual. Fast forward a few weeks, and those doubters are basically doing victory laps.
SpaceX shares have been trading below their $135 IPO price for most of the past couple of weeks. Not exactly the triumphant debut Elon Musk was probably hoping for. To make matters worse, the company had to abort a rocket launch last week due to engine failure—because nothing says “confidence in our stock” like a literal rocket malfunction.
So what’s actually going on? Here are three numbers that tell the whole story:
$1 Trillion Gone
This is the amount of market value that’s evaporated since SpaceX peaked. The stock hit its high on day three of trading, when the company was valued at a cool $2.64 trillion. Then reality set in. Shares tanked over the following week and have been slowly bleeding out ever since. By Friday’s close, SpaceX was worth $1.63 trillion. That’s a $1 trillion haircut in less than a month. Ouch.
$5 Billion in Short-Seller Profits
Here’s where it gets spicy: short-sellers are absolutely printing money. About 30% of SpaceX’s float has been sold short, and these investors have made roughly $5 billion in paper gains since the IPO. And they’re not done—short interest has jumped nearly five times in the past month. These folks are basically betting against SpaceX, and right now, they’re winning big.
1.37 Billion Shares About to Unlock
This is the real ticking time bomb. Two trading days after SpaceX reports Q2 earnings (due after the bell on August 17), 1.37 billion shares will unlock and become available for sale. That’s 20% of the company’s early-release-eligible shares. If even a fraction of those hit the market, it could send the stock into another tailspin.
But Wait, There’s Hope (Maybe)
Before you write SpaceX’s obituary, remember that mega-cap IPO debuts often hit rough patches before bouncing back. Meta (Facebook) tanked for months after going public in 2012 before becoming the market juggernaut we know today.
Wall Street analysts are still aggressively bullish, with 30 buy ratings versus just one sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $235.34—that’s 90% above where the stock closed last Friday. UBS, Bernstein, and Raymond James all reaffirmed their buy ratings even as the stock was getting hammered.
So yeah, SpaceX’s IPO has been a disaster so far. But if you’re a believer in the company’s long-term vision, this might just be the kind of volatility you expect from a high-flying growth stock. Just over five weeks in, SpaceX is learning that being public is a whole different ballgame.
