The space sector is having a moment, and two smaller players are riding the wave straight into their own earnings reports today. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares jumped 27.5% over the past week, while AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) climbed 22%, both set to report second-quarter results after Monday’s market close. The rally traces directly back to SpaceX, which posted its first-ever public quarterly report on August 3 and blew past expectations — April-June revenue nearly doubled year-over-year to $7.8 billion, up from $4.1 billion, driven by a 66% jump in Starlink satellite revenue and a stunning 250% surge in its AI business. SpaceX stock has risen 16% since that report landed.
Wall Street’s expectations for the two smaller names are similarly aggressive. Analysts project Rocket Lab’s quarterly revenue will rise 15% from the prior quarter to $230.94 million, though its adjusted loss is expected to widen slightly to $0.05 per share. The company enters earnings fresh off a $397 million Space Force contract to build and operate satellites that track airborne threats, plus a separate $266 million deal covering 12 suborbital launches. AST SpaceMobile’s numbers look even more dramatic: analysts expect revenue to surge 133% quarter-over-quarter to $34.4 million, with the adjusted loss narrowing from $0.66 to $0.23 per share. The company also just landed Japanese government backing worth roughly $900 million, covering up to half the costs of a broader $1.8 billion satellite and gateway build-out with Mitsubishi.
For investors, this is a high-beta way to play the broader AI-and-space infrastructure theme that’s been lifting names like SpaceX all year — but the risk cuts both ways. Both stocks have already run hard heading into tonight’s numbers, meaning a lot of good news may already be priced in, and any miss on revenue or wider-than-expected losses could trigger a sharp reversal. Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits has stayed decisively bullish on both names, but investors should watch guidance commentary closely — specifically whether Rocket Lab’s launch cadence and AST SpaceMobile’s satellite deployment timeline stay on track, since execution delays have hit both stocks hard in the past.
