Look, we all know 2026 has been… interesting so far. But according to the smart folks at BCA Research, we might just be getting warmed up. They’ve put together their annual “things that probably won’t happen but would totally ruin your day if they did” list, and honestly? It’s a real page-turner.
Here are the five black swan events that could turn your investment portfolio into confetti:
1. Iran Has a Really Bad Day (And Takes Oil With It)
Picture this: Iran’s government collapses, oil supply gets absolutely wrecked, and suddenly your gas bill looks like a phone number. BCA gives this a 38% chance of being “massive” and a 40% chance of being merely “minor” (which in oil shock terms still means your wallet crying).
The good news? Trump doesn’t want an oil crisis before midterms, Iran doesn’t want to get bombed, and we’ve got about 8 billion barrels sitting around. The bad news? When has geopolitics ever been logical?
2. China Pulls Another DeepSeek (But Bigger)
Remember when DeepSeek wiped $1 trillion off US stocks faster than you could say “artificial intelligence”? Yeah, that could happen again. China’s already outspending Europe on R&D and filing more patents than basically everyone else combined.
If Beijing drops another tech bombshell, OpenAI’s valuation could “evaporate” (BCA’s word, not mine), and the rest of us get to watch our tech stocks do their best Titanic impression. Fun times!
3. Taiwan Becomes Everyone’s Problem
Here’s a cheerful thought: What if China decides it’s economically self-sufficient enough to stop caring about consequences? BCA sees a 39% chance of escalating tensions, 25% chance of proxy war, and 7% chance of the full nightmare scenario.
The silver lining? China’s industrial production suggests they’re not exactly in “prepare for war” mode. Yet.
4. Putin Gets Really Creative
Russia could decide to test NATO’s “attack one, fight all” policy by, you know, actually attacking one. BCA puts this at 10% odds, which sounds low until you remember we’re talking about nuclear-armed countries having a disagreement.
The scenario gets extra spicy if Trump decides to arm Ukraine more heavily, potentially making Putin feel cornered. Because nothing good ever happens when dictators feel cornered.
5. NATO Goes the Way of Your High School Friend Group
The grand finale: What if the US just… doesn’t show up when NATO needs it? Or decides to invade Greenland (though Trump says he won’t use military force, so that’s… reassuring?).
BCA gives this a 30% chance of the US somehow damaging NATO, which would basically turn the alliance into expensive letterhead.
The Bottom Line
Look, these are called black swans for a reason – they’re unlikely but devastating. The real kicker? BCA notes that “white swans are now in the minority,” meaning the weird stuff is becoming normal.
So what’s an investor to do? Maybe don’t put all your eggs in one basket, keep some cash handy, and remember that markets have survived worse. Probably.