How I define “cheap” and “good”
• Cheap: large caps temporarily priced below their fundamentals because of cyclical headwinds, execution resets, or sentiment..
• Good: durable cash generation, defensible positioning, and near‑term catalysts that can close the gap.
1) Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)
Why cheap
Post‑pandemic revenue reset and pipeline skepticism depressed the multiple despite improved guidance. In Q3 2025 Pfizer raised its FY25 adjusted EPS range to $3.00–$3.15. Business Wire
Why good
Scale in biopharma, solid balance of vaccines and specialty medicines, and ongoing cost discipline. Management has been lifting full‑year profit outlooks through 2025. Reuters
Key numbers
Q3 2025 results: adjusted EPS $0.87 on revenue $16.65B. Quarterly dividend policy remains active via the company’s dividend program. MarketBeat+1
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• Cost‑savings flow‑through to EPS. Reuters
• Non‑COVID portfolio growth out of oncology and vaccines. Company communications highlight ongoing progress in these franchises. Pfizer Investor Relations
Risks
Drug‑pricing pressure, setbacks in late‑stage trials, and lingering COVID normalization.
2) Kraft Heinz (Nasdaq: KHC)
Why cheap
Staples sentiment weak and 2025 outlook trimmed. Shares trade with a high cash yield, reflecting conservative growth expectations. Baking Business
Why good
Iconic brands and a structural move to unlock value: on Sept 2, 2025 the board approved a plan to split into two public companies via tax‑free spin, with the press release stating that the aggregate dividend level is expected to be maintained. Business Wire
Key numbers
Company reaffirmed separation plan timing with Q3 materials; third‑party coverage notes lowered FY25 guide alongside the split timetable. Dividend history is maintained on IR. Baking Business+1
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• Spin execution toward 2H 2026; potential re‑rating of “Global Taste Elevation Co.” vs “North American Grocery Co.” as separate equities. Reuters+1
Risks
Execution risk around the separation, private‑label competition, and input‑cost volatility.
3) Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN)
Why cheap
Specialty materials are in a cyclical trough. Q3 showed lower sales and utilization, pressuring earnings. Eastman
Why good
Cash generation and inventory discipline are strong. Q3 2025 operating cash flow was $402M with a ~$200M inventory reduction vs. Q2. Management remains focused on cost reduction and the circular‑economy platform (e.g., rPET, Tritan). Eastman
Key numbers
Q3 revenue $2.20B; adjusted EBIT $210M; guidance frames FY25 operating cash flow to approach ~$1B. Eastman
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• Destocking completes; price‑cost stability holds.
• Ramp in circular‑economy contracts supports mix. Eastman
Risks
Prolonged macro softness, spread compression in intermediates, and tariff or logistics noise.
4) Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)
Why cheap
Legacy media drag obscures improving Direct‑to‑Consumer economics. In Q3 FY25 Disney delivered positive streaming operating income and raised FY EPS guidance. The Walt Disney Company+1
Why good
Pricing power and focus on profitability. Disney is raising Disney+ prices again to support margin, and is shifting disclosures away from raw subs to profit metrics. Reuters+1
Key numbers
Q3 FY25 adj. EPS $1.61; DTC operating income +$346M; Experiences segment operating income $2.5B. Q4 FY25 results webcast is scheduled Nov 13, 2025. The Walt Disney Company+1
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• ESPN full DTC launch and sports rights packaging. Reuters
• Further bundling and pricing optimization. Reuters
Risks
Film slate variability, linear TV decline, and macro sensitivity in parks.
5) NXP Semiconductors (Nasdaq: NXPI)
Why cheap
Auto/industrial chips are late‑cycle. 2025 revenue cadence is flat to modestly down, which dampens sentiment despite solid margins. Q3 2025 revenue $3.17B (–2% y/y). Nasdaq
Why good
Automotive is the anchor. In 2024, ~$7.15B of $12.61B revenue was auto, ~57% mix. Content growth in ADAS, power, and connectivity is secular. NXP
Key numbers
Q2 2025 softness was telegraphed; recovery path depends on inventory normalization. Reuters
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• Auto normalization and platform wins; example: battery‑management innovations announced in late Oct 2025. NXP
Risks
Auto unit demand, inventory corrections at Tier‑1s, and pricing pressure in non‑auto segments.
6) Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT)
Why cheap
Shares pulled back on a below‑consensus Q4 FY25 outlook and new U.S. export controls that will reduce revenue by ~$110M in Q4 FY25 and ~$600M in FY26. Reuters+1
Why good
Record execution in Q3 FY25 and leadership across foundry/logic and memory equipment. Q3 revenue $7.30B, ahead of expectations. ir.appliedmaterials.com+1
Key numbers
Company guides for continued structural demand tied to AI and leading‑edge capacity, while digesting China license risk. Futurum
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• U.S./EU fab projects move from orders to installs.
• License clarity or easing could unlock deferred demand. Reuters
Risks
Export licensing outcomes, capex timing, and memory pricing cycles.
7) Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE)
Why cheap
Quality at a fair price after a 2023 reset from the terminated Figma deal. Fundamentals have re‑accelerated with AI monetization across Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud. AP News
Why good
Q3 FY25 had record revenue $5.99B, RPO > $20B, and raised FY25 revenue and EPS targets. Management cites AI‑influenced ARR now >$5B. Adobe
Key numbers
Adobe also raised FY25 outlook earlier in the year on steady AI adoption across tools like Firefly. Reuters
Catalysts (6–18 months)
• Rollout of new Firefly/Assistant features from MAX 2025, increasing upsell and seat expansion. RedShark News
Risks
Competitive pressure from new creation tools, macro‑driven marketing budgets, and elevated expectations.