So here’s the deal: while everyone’s been freaking out about tariffs supposedly tanking the economy, AI companies have been out here spending money like they just discovered their credit cards have no limits. And according to Apollo’s top economist Torsten Sløk, this tech spending spree is basically playing economic superhero right now.
Think of it this way – Trump’s trade war was supposed to be this big economic buzzkill, right? But instead of the predicted doom and gloom, we’ve got companies throwing around billions like confetti at a data center party. Sløk says this AI boom is so intense it’s completely drowning out any negative vibes from those tariffs.
The numbers are pretty wild. We’re talking about a $590 billion pipeline of factory projects, with nearly 200 completions since mid-2023. That’s not just “doing well” – that’s “we’re building the future and apparently it requires a LOT of concrete and electricity.”
But here’s where it gets interesting (and slightly terrifying). Harvard’s Jason Furman dropped this little bombshell: AI spending accounts for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Let that sink in. Ninety-two percent. That’s like saying your entire social life depends on one friend who might move away next month.
See, AI investment is only about 4% of our total GDP, but it’s doing basically ALL the heavy lifting for economic growth. It’s like that one overachiever in your group project who ends up doing everything while everyone else just shows up for the presentation.
The concerning part? Some smart people are starting to ask the obvious question: “What happens when this AI spending party ends?” Pantheon Macroeconomics did the math and found that without AI capex, US growth would be less than 1%. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed is projecting 3.9% growth for Q3. That’s… a pretty big gap.
It’s kind of like discovering your amazing new diet is actually just you eating nothing but energy drinks. Sure, you feel great now, but what happens when you crash?
Deutsche Bank is basically playing the role of that friend who asks uncomfortable questions at parties: “Hey, this is great and all, but what’s the exit strategy here?” Because right now, tech companies are propping up both the stock market AND the broader economy. No pressure or anything.
The silver lining? Corporate defaults and consumer delinquencies are trending down, which usually means people and companies are doing okay financially. Plus, we’re apparently in the “early stages of an industrial revival” – fancy talk for “America is building stuff again.”
So where does this leave us? Well, we’re riding high on an AI-fueled economic wave that’s making tariffs look like a minor inconvenience. But we’re also potentially one spending slowdown away from discovering just how much of our economic growth was actually just really expensive computers talking to each other.
It’s the ultimate modern economic paradox: our salvation and our potential downfall are the same thing. At least the data centers look cool from space.