So, the U.S. government has been shut down for three weeks now, and if you’re wondering when this political soap opera will end, well… the internet has some bad news for you.
Enter prediction markets – basically places where people put their money where their mouth is when it comes to guessing what happens next. Think of it as fantasy football, but for political disasters. And right now, these digital crystal balls are painting a pretty grim picture.
On Polymarket (yes, that’s a real thing), people have thrown almost $2 million at bets about when this shutdown will end. The crowd’s verdict? Buckle up, because 40% of bettors think we’re looking at November 16th or later before anyone in Washington gets their act together. That would make this shutdown longer than a Netflix series you keep meaning to finish.
To put this in perspective, the longest government shutdown in history lasted 35 days back in 2018-2019. We’re currently at 22 days, which means we’re already in “this is getting ridiculous” territory. But according to the betting crowd, we’re just getting started.
Over on Kalshi (another prediction market that sounds like a sneeze), the numbers are even more depressing. Bettors there see a 77% chance this thing drags on past 35 days, officially making it the longest shutdown ever. Some are even betting on 40+ days, which would take us well into November. At that point, we might as well start planning Thanksgiving around it.
Now, you might be thinking, “Who are these people betting on government dysfunction?” Fair question. These aren’t your typical Vegas gamblers – prediction markets tend to attract people who actually pay attention to politics and economics. When they’re this pessimistic, it usually means something.
The real-world impact is already pretty brutal. Federal workers are either sitting at home unpaid or showing up to work without paychecks. Air traffic controllers and TSA agents are basically working for IOUs right now, which is exactly as concerning as it sounds when you think about flying anywhere.
But here’s the weird part: Wall Street is basically shrugging this off like it’s no big deal. The stock market is more interested in earnings season and AI hype than the fact that the government has essentially gone on an extended coffee break. Investors are apparently betting that this is just another round of political theater that’ll get resolved eventually.
This disconnect is pretty wild when you think about it. You’ve got prediction markets saying “this is going to be historically bad,” while stock markets are like “wake me up when it actually matters.” It’s like watching two different movies about the same event.
The betting markets might be onto something though. With $16+ million in volume on Kalshi alone, these aren’t just random guesses – they’re informed predictions from people willing to put real money behind their hunches.
So what’s the takeaway? If you were planning on getting any government services done anytime soon, maybe don’t hold your breath. And if you’re a federal worker, well… maybe start looking into that side hustle you’ve been putting off.
Because according to the people literally betting on it, this shutdown isn’t ending anytime soon.