So Bank of America just dropped their hot take for 2026, and it’s not crypto, it’s not AI stocks, it’s… commodities. Yeah, those boring old things like oil, gold, and copper that your dad probably told you to invest in back in the day.
But here’s the thing – BofA might actually be onto something with their “run-it-hot” thesis. They’re basically saying 2026 is going to be a year of strong growth, government spending like there’s no tomorrow, and inflation that might make your morning coffee cost more than your car payment.
The numbers are already looking pretty spicy. The Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund is up 17% this year, which is actually beating the S&P 500. Not bad for something most people think is about as exciting as watching paint dry.
Here’s why BofA thinks commodities are about to have their main character moment:
Trump’s Economic Policies Are About to Get Wild
The new administration’s economic agenda is basically “growth at all costs,” which historically has been great news for commodities. When governments spend big and economies run hot, stuff like oil, metals, and agricultural products tend to do really well.
Bonds Are Looking Less Attractive
Remember when bonds were the “safe” investment? Well, with all the government spending happening, commodities are starting to look like the better hedge against economic chaos. It’s like choosing between a reliable but boring friend and someone who’s actually fun at parties.
Globalization Is Having a Midlife Crisis
Trade wars, supply chain issues, and countries basically saying “we’ll do it ourselves, thanks” means commodities – which need to be shipped around the world – are becoming more valuable. It’s supply and demand 101, but on a global scale.
Inflation Might Actually Stick Around
Gold is up 60% this year and having its best run since the 1970s. That’s not an accident. When people think their money might be worth less tomorrow, they buy shiny things and real assets.
The energy sector is particularly interesting here. BofA is calling oil and energy the best “contrarian trade” – basically betting on something everyone else is ignoring. With potential peace between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices could get interesting fast.
Look, commodities aren’t sexy. They don’t have flashy earnings calls or viral TikToks explaining why they’re going to the moon. But sometimes the boring trade is the smart trade. And if BofA is right about their “run-it-hot” economy, commodities might just be the sleeper hit of 2026.
Just remember – this isn’t financial advice, it’s just one bank’s opinion. But when one of the biggest banks in the world says “hey, maybe buy some boring stuff,” it might be worth paying attention.