Remember when everyone lost their minds over VCX? The Fundrise Innovation Fund hit the NYSE on March 19 and immediately went absolutely bonkers. Within four days, shares rocketed from $31.25 to $575—a 1,740% surge that had circuit breakers firing like fireworks on the Fourth of July. Retail investors were convinced they’d found the golden ticket to Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX before these companies went public.
Then reality showed up.
By late March, activist short-seller Citron Research posted a simple chart and a question mark. Shares tanked 49% in a single day. Today, VCX trades around $130—still a mind-bending 585% premium to its actual underlying assets. The mania isn’t dead, but the easy money is gone.
Here’s the thing: the underlying thesis is probably right. Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are genuinely transformative companies that will likely become some of the most valuable firms on Earth. The problem? Paying 30 times the actual value of something just because it’s hard to reach is a terrible way to express that thesis.
The Scarcity Trap
VCX’s core flaw is that it’s a scarcity play masquerading as an investment. When these companies were completely private, the fund offered something unique—access. That exclusivity drove prices to insane levels. But here’s the catch: scarcity fades the moment these companies IPO.
Once Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX go public, you won’t need to pay a 585% premium to own them. You’ll just buy the stock directly. The fund’s entire value proposition evaporates. Success becomes the exit signal—which is backwards.
Add in the supply shock coming when early VCX investors’ lockups expire, and you’ve got a recipe for disappointment.
Smarter Ways to Play the AI IPO Wave
The good news? You can still get pre-IPO exposure to these mega-companies without losing your mind. Three alternatives stand out:
SuRo Capital (SSSS) trades at a 25-30% discount to its forward net asset value, despite holding significant OpenAI exposure. That’s the opposite of VCX’s premium problem.
Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) is VCX’s more rational cousin. It holds SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic but trades at a 33% premium to NAV—elevated, sure, but actually defensible for a liquid vehicle holding hard-to-access assets.
ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR) blends public equities with a 15% private equity sleeve that includes SpaceX. It trades at a discount to NAV, giving you pre-IPO exposure without the concentrated risk.
The Bottom Line
The AI mega-IPO story is real. The opportunity is enormous. But you don’t need to pay 585% premiums to participate. The biggest gains in market history went to investors who were already inside when the doors opened—not to people who bought on IPO day at peak hype.
The window is still open. Just don’t overpay for the ticket.
