So David Solomon, the guy who runs Goldman Sachs when he’s not moonlighting as a DJ (yes, really), just shared his hot takes on what 2026 has in store for us mere mortals trying to make sense of the markets.
Here’s the TL;DR: We’re probably not heading into a recession, markets should keep doing their thing, but buckle up for some geopolitical drama along the way.
Recession? What Recession?
Solomon thinks there’s only about a 20% chance we’ll see a recession this year. In Wall Street speak, that’s basically saying “one out of seven” – which sounds way less scary when you put it like that, right?
His reasoning? The US economy is looking pretty “constructive” (banker-speak for “not terrible”). We’ve got AI money flowing everywhere, the Fed is still cutting rates like they’re trimming hedges, and Trump’s policies are generally business-friendly. Plus, economists are saying the economy might have grown 5.4% in Q4, which is honestly pretty impressive.
The only way Solomon sees us face-planting into a recession is if some random “exogenous event” comes out of nowhere. Translation: unless something really weird happens that nobody saw coming, we should be fine.
Markets Are Going to Keep Being Markets
Solomon’s calling 2026 a “strong capital markets year,” which is fancy talk for “stocks should do well.” His logic checks out: governments are throwing money around like confetti, regulations are getting looser (especially in the US and Europe), and companies are finally figuring out how to actually use AI instead of just talking about it.
Here’s the interesting part – he thinks we might be seeing a bubble in AI stocks (shocking, I know), but the market rally is finally spreading beyond the usual suspects. Remember the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have been carrying the entire market? Well, even the little guys are starting to get some love now.
But Watch Out for Those Speed Bumps
Now here’s where Solomon gets real. He’s warning about potential “speed bumps” – basically, all the crazy stuff happening around the world that could make markets go haywire for a hot minute.
We’ve already seen some of this chaos in action: the US raiding Venezuela, tensions with Iran heating up, and Trump making noise about buying Greenland (because apparently that’s a thing now). Each time something like this happens, markets freak out, then remember they have the attention span of a goldfish and bounce back.
Solomon’s point is that while the fundamentals look solid, “the noise sometimes can sap confidence.” It’s like trying to focus on work while your neighbor is having a loud argument – the underlying situation might be fine, but the distraction is real.
So there you have it: 2026 according to Goldman’s head honcho. Strong markets, low recession risk, but keep your seatbelt fastened because the world is still pretty wild out there. Not exactly groundbreaking stuff, but sometimes it’s nice to hear from someone who presumably knows what they’re talking about.