So the government shutdown is finally over after 39 days of Washington doing what it does best—creating unnecessary drama. Trump signed the bill, the lights are back on, and everyone can go back to pretending they know what they’re doing. But here’s the thing: Wall Street isn’t exactly throwing a party.
While the Dow hit a fresh record high (because apparently someone’s optimistic), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are acting like that friend who says they’re “fine” but clearly isn’t. Tech stocks have been getting hammered for three straight days, and pre-market futures suggest more of the same awkwardness ahead.
The Fed’s Playing Hard to Get
Remember when everyone was convinced the Fed would cut rates in December? Yeah, about that. Boston Fed President Susan Collins just threw cold water on that party, basically saying “hold your horses” on more rate cuts. The odds of a December cut have plummeted from 95.5% a month ago to just 53.6% now. That’s like going from “definitely happening” to “maybe if we’re lucky.”
The Winners and Losers Show
In the earnings circus, we had some real drama. Cisco jumped 6.7% because they actually delivered good news for once—strong guidance that made investors remember why they liked tech stocks in the first place. Meanwhile, Disney took a 3.8% nosedive after missing revenue targets. Apparently, even the magic kingdom can’t escape reality.
Alibaba rallied 4.3% on news they’re upgrading their AI to compete with ChatGPT. Because nothing says “we’re innovative” like playing catch-up with everyone else’s AI.
Bitcoin’s Having an Identity Crisis
Here’s where things get interesting. Bitcoin is sitting just above $100,000—which sounds impressive until you realize it’s down 20% from its recent highs. It’s like that person who peaked in high school and keeps talking about their glory days. If Bitcoin breaks below this psychological level, it could trigger a broader selloff in risky assets. And nobody wants to be holding the bag when that happens.
The Real Talk
Here’s what’s actually happening: The market should be rallying into year-end because that’s what markets typically do. It’s like seasonal depression in reverse—things usually get better as we approach the holidays. But between Washington’s ongoing dysfunction and investors’ trust issues, normal patterns are getting thrown out the window.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index is already showing signs of weakness, which is often the canary in the coal mine for broader market troubles. When small caps start struggling, it usually means investors are getting nervous about taking risks.
So while the government shutdown is over, the real question isn’t whether investors care—it’s whether they trust anything enough to actually put their money where their mouth is. And right now, that trust is in shorter supply than a decent parking spot in Manhattan.
The bottom line? Keep your eyes on Bitcoin’s $100K level, watch how tech stocks react to the Fed’s new “maybe later” attitude on rate cuts, and don’t be surprised if this market continues to act like a teenager with mood swings. Sometimes the most important news isn’t what happened, but what everyone’s afraid might happen next.