So Intel just pulled off the classic “good news, bad news” routine that makes Wall Street traders reach for their stress balls. The chip giant dropped their Q4 2025 earnings yesterday, and boy, was it a wild ride.
First, the good stuff: Intel actually beat expectations. Revenue hit $13.7 billion (analysts were expecting $13.41 billion), and they posted adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share when Wall Street was bracing for a measly $0.08. Not bad for a company that’s been having more ups and downs than a yo-yo championship.
But here’s where things get spicy. Intel’s management decided to rain on their own parade by serving up some seriously weak guidance for Q1 2026. They’re forecasting revenue between $11.7-$12.7 billion, with the midpoint falling short of what analysts wanted to hear. And instead of the $0.05 earnings per share everyone was hoping for? They’re calling for breakeven. Ouch.
The culprit? Good old-fashioned supply chain drama. Intel’s dealing with chip supply bottlenecks that are apparently going to be “severe” in Q1 before (hopefully) chilling out later in the year. It’s like when your favorite restaurant runs out of your go-to dish – frustrating, but probably temporary.
Wall Street’s reaction was about as subtle as a brick through a window. Intel’s stock is down 14% in premarket trading, tumbling from above $54 to around $47. That’s what happens when you get investors all excited and then tell them to pump the brakes.
Here’s the thing though – Intel’s underlying business isn’t exactly falling apart. Their Data Center and AI revenue actually grew 9% year-over-year to $4.7 billion. Custom ASICs (fancy specialized chips) are growing like crazy, up over 50% and hitting a $1 billion annual run rate. The company’s also generating positive free cash flow again, which is always nice to see.
The real issue is that Intel’s stock had already gone on a bit of a joyride this year, surging nearly 50% as analysts got all starry-eyed about AI demand and foundry progress. When you’re trading at over 4 times sales for a company still figuring out how to consistently make money, there’s not much room for disappointment.
So should you buy this dip? Well, that depends on your risk tolerance and whether you believe CEO Lip-Bu Tan when he says things will improve from Q2 onward. Intel’s definitely making progress on their turnaround story – they’re getting traction in AI, their advanced chip manufacturing is slowly coming together, and they’re positioning themselves as America’s answer to overseas chip dependence.
But let’s be real: this is still a company in transition, dealing with supply headaches and trying to prove they can execute consistently. The next quarterly guidance will be crucial in determining whether this is just a temporary hiccup or a sign of deeper issues.
Bottom line? Intel’s not broken, but they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders either. If you’re thinking about jumping in, maybe wait to see if they can actually deliver on those Q2 promises before betting the farm.