So everyone’s talking about “the top” lately. You know, that magical moment when the stock market decides it’s had enough fun and takes a nosedive. The chatter is everywhere – AI bubble this, dot-com comparison that, Fed policy error over there.
Here’s the thing though: saying we’re in the “late innings” of a bull market is like saying a baseball game is almost over. Sure, but are we talking about a quick 20-minute inning or one of those marathon 70-minute affairs that makes you question your life choices?
Our tech guru Luke Lango has a theory: in the next 12 months, tech stocks could party like it’s 1999. Then? Well, then comes the hangover.
The “Crazy Map” – Because Every Bubble Needs a GPS
Every bull market starts sensible enough – solid earnings, reasonable valuations, everyone playing nice. But then things get weird. Money gets cheap, stories matter more than profits, and suddenly everyone’s convinced they’re the next Warren Buffett.
Think about it: Pets.com went public and died within nine months. Banks were slapping AAA ratings on mortgage bundles that were already defaulting (seriously, watch “The Big Short” if you haven’t). GameStop went from $20 to $500 because Reddit said so.
So we’ve created a “Crazy Map” to track the madness. Think of it as a traffic light system for market insanity:
Speculation over substance: AI startups with zero revenue are getting triple-digit price multiples. IPOs are doubling on day one. We’re firmly in “story stock” territory.
Easy money and leverage: Margin debt just hit $1 trillion. That’s a lot of borrowed money floating around, and borrowed money has a nasty habit of demanding to be paid back at the worst possible times.
New financial products: Remember SPACs? Well, now we have single-stock leveraged ETFs and “weekly pay” funds that are basically return-of-capital dressed up as gains. Creative? Yes. Terrifying? Also yes.
Retail crowding in: The meme stock army is smaller than 2021 but still active. Social media can still launch a stock 20% in a day (looking at you, Opendoor).
Headline-grabbing deals: OpenAI went from a $157 billion valuation to $500 billion faster than you can say “artificial intelligence.” That’s not normal.
The Bottom Line
Our Crazy Map is flashing yellow with some red alerts. Translation: we’re in the caution zone, but not quite at “sell everything and hide under your bed” levels yet.
The tricky part? For many investors, yellow means “floor it!” – which is exactly what we expect to see in certain market corners over the coming months.
So we’ll keep tracking this madness. The more red we see, the more you might want to think about playing defense. Because while riding the crazy wave higher can be profitable, nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag when the music stops.
Stay smart out there. The market might be getting crazy, but that doesn’t mean you have to.