Remember when the Iran war had everyone convinced we were headed for an economic apocalypse? Yeah, about that.
This week, markets decided to do a complete 180, and honestly, it was the financial equivalent of a superhero movie plot twist. On Tuesday evening, news of a ceasefire deal dropped like a mic, and investors collectively exhaled for the first time in weeks. The result? An absolute rager of a market rally that basically erased all the losses from the conflict.
Let’s break down what actually happened, because the moves were *chef’s kiss* dramatic.
**Stocks went absolutely bonkers.** The S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly gain since November—up 3.6% for the week. The Dow jumped over 1,300 points on Wednesday alone, and the Nasdaq nearly hit 3%. By Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had clawed back nearly all its losses since the war started, sitting just 1% below where it was in late February. For context, that’s a massive recovery in a matter of days.
**Oil prices crashed through the floor.** Both Brent crude and WTI crude dropped below the $100-a-barrel psychological threshold that everyone’s been watching like hawks. Brent ended the week at $94.50, while WTI settled at $95.98. Wednesday alone saw WTI post its biggest single-day drop since 2020. That’s the kind of move that makes traders’ jaws hit their desks.
**Treasury yields took a nosedive.** The 10-year yield tumbled from 4.34% on Tuesday afternoon to 4.24% by Wednesday’s low, eventually settling at 4.31% by week’s end. Why? Because investors suddenly realized that maybe—just maybe—we’re not heading into a prolonged energy crisis that’ll send inflation through the roof.
Here’s the thing that makes this interesting: the market’s basically betting that the ceasefire holds and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can normalize. If that happens, the energy crunch everyone feared gets way less scary. Inflation expectations cooled, and suddenly, the odds of the Fed cutting rates at least once in 2026 jumped to 30%—a massive shift from where we were just days earlier.
The whole thing is basically a masterclass in how quickly market sentiment can flip. One week, everyone’s convinced we’re in for stagflation and recession. The next week, a ceasefire deal gets announced, and suddenly the narrative shifts to “maybe things aren’t so bad after all.”
Of course, the real question now is whether this ceasefire actually sticks. Markets are optimistic, but geopolitical situations are notoriously unpredictable. Still, for this week at least, investors got the relief rally they desperately needed—and the charts show it.
