Look, I’m not saying the stock market has seasonal depression, but November? November is basically its therapy month where everything just works.
Bank of America just dropped some numbers that’ll make you want to mark your calendar. Since 1927 (yeah, we’re talking Great Depression era), the S&P 500 has been up 59% of the time in November, with an average gain of 1%. Not earth-shattering, but hey—consistent beats flashy every time.
Here’s where it gets spicy: we’re in year one of a presidential cycle, and October’s looking pretty solid. When those two things align? November wins 92% of the time. Those are Vegas-level odds, people.
Where to Park Your Cash (According to the Suits at BofA)
Consumer Discretionary: The “I-want-it-not-need-it” sector has been crushing November since forever—up 80% of the time with 3.14% average gains. Think of it as the retail therapy sector getting ready for Black Friday madness.
Tech Stocks: The Nasdaq 100 wins 69% of November battles (nice), averaging 2.47% gains. S&P 500 tech does even better at 71% win rate and 3.1% average gains. Apparently, algorithms love autumn.
Healthcare: The most reliable November performer—83% win rate with 2.52% average gains. Because even in good times, people still need their pills and procedures.
Industrials: These “we-build-stuff” companies win 80% of the time in November, averaging 3.02% gains. Infrastructure never goes out of style.
Small-Caps: The Russell 2000 little guys win 70% of November rounds, averaging 2.64% gains. Within small-caps, tech, healthcare, and industrials absolutely demolish November and December combined—we’re talking 6%+ average gains.
The Reality Check
Sure, we’re cruising at all-time highs with everyone losing their minds over AI. Nvidia just hit $5 trillion (what even is money anymore?), while Apple and Microsoft both crossed $4 trillion. The S&P 500 is up 38.2% from April’s low and 17.6% for the year.
Earlier this year, everyone was freaking out about tariffs and whether AI was just expensive hype. But here we are, shrugging off headwinds like they’re minor inconveniences.
Look, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results—your broker’s lawyer made me say that. But when you’ve got nearly a century of data showing November tends to be the market’s favorite child, maybe it’s worth paying attention.
Just remember: even the best seasonal trends can get wrecked by unexpected news, geopolitical drama, or that one tweet that sends everything sideways. But if you’re looking for historical precedent to guide your next moves, November’s track record is pretty hard to argue with.
Now excuse me while I go research which consumer discretionary stocks are about to benefit from my inevitable holiday shopping spree.