When the people who know a company best are selling, it’s worth paying attention. Three Nvidia executives have dumped over $105 million in stock since January 1st, and four billionaire fund managers just disclosed massive position cuts — all ahead of Wednesday’s Q4 earnings report.
CFO Colette Kress led the insider parade, unloading multiple batches across January and February totaling nearly $17 million. Executive VP Ajay Puri offloaded 400,000 shares worth roughly $73 million. Donald Robertson sold another 80,000 shares on New Year’s Day. Across the board, Nvidia insiders have sold approximately $1.79 billion in the past 12 months — with zero insider buys reported during that stretch.
On the institutional side, Q4 13F filings that hit last week paint a similar picture. Israel Englander’s Millennium Management sold 3 million shares. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global dumped 698,000. Philippe Laffont’s Coatue shed 667,000. And David Tepper’s Appaloosa sold 200,000 shares — meaning Nvidia is no longer even a top-5 holding in one of the most closely watched portfolios on Wall Street.
The bull case will argue this is routine diversification. Executives often sell on preset 10b5-1 plans. Hedge funds rotate constantly. And Nvidia’s fundamentals are still monstrous — analysts expect $65 billion in Q4 revenue and $1.52 in earnings per share, following a record $57 billion quarter. The company just inked a massive multi-year GPU deal with Meta and is reportedly in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI.
But here’s what makes Wednesday’s report particularly interesting: the options market is pricing a 7% post-earnings move, while the median actual move over Nvidia’s last 10 earnings reports has been just 3.2%. That gap means options premiums are heavily inflated — and the straddle sellers may have the edge this time around.
The competitive narrative is also shifting. Nvidia’s biggest customers — Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft — are all developing proprietary AI chips for internal use. OpenAI just slashed its compute spending forecast from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion by 2030. And while Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs maintain performance superiority, the stock’s price-to-sales ratio recently topped 30x — a level that has historically signaled frothy valuations in high-growth stocks.
None of this means Nvidia is about to crash. This is a generational business with genuine monopoly-like positioning in AI infrastructure. But when insiders, billionaires, and the options market are all waving yellow flags at the same time, Wednesday’s earnings call carries more weight than usual. For traders, the play might not be the stock itself — it’s the volatility premium baked into the options chain.