So Ray Dalio—you know, the billionaire hedge fund guy who’s basically the Yoda of investing—just threw some serious shade at everyone celebrating their 2025 stock market gains. And honestly? He’s got a point that might make you rethink that victory lap.
Here’s the deal: While everyone’s been high-fiving over the S&P 500’s 18% return last year, Dalio’s over here playing the role of that friend who points out your “designer” bag is actually a knockoff. Except instead of fashion, he’s talking about your money.
The Bridgewater founder dropped this gem on Monday: Gold absolutely crushed it in 2025, returning 65% and making it the best year for the shiny stuff since 1979. Meanwhile, your beloved S&P 500? It actually lost 28% when measured in gold terms. Ouch.
“When one’s own currency goes down, it makes it look like the things measured in it went up,” Dalio explained, basically saying we’ve all been using a broken measuring stick. It’s like celebrating weight loss when your scale is just broken.
Think about it this way: If you’re a dollar-based investor, you saw that nice 18% return. But if you were thinking in euros? Only 4%. Swiss francs? A measly 3%. It’s the same portfolio, just different scorecards—and some of those scorecards are telling a very different story.
Dalio’s not just being a buzzkill for fun. He’s genuinely worried about what he calls the “debasement trade”—basically, the idea that our currencies are losing their mojo while hard assets like gold are becoming the cool kids at the lunch table. When gold rallies this hard, it’s usually not because everything’s peachy. It’s more like a fire alarm going off.
The guy spent most of 2025 warning about a global debt crisis and fiat currencies losing their grip on reality. Now he’s pointing to gold’s monster year as proof that maybe, just maybe, we should pay attention to those warning signs instead of just celebrating our portfolio gains.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Both stocks and gold benefited from easier monetary policy last year. But Dalio’s basically saying, “Hey, the party was fun, but now both assets are getting expensive, and if the music stops, things could get ugly fast.”
His advice? Stop measuring everything in dollars and start thinking about currency hedging. “You should always be hedged to your least-risk currency mix,” he says, which is finance-speak for “don’t put all your eggs in one currency basket.”
Look, nobody likes the person who points out the emperor has no clothes, but Dalio’s track record suggests we should probably listen. The gold rally isn’t just about shiny objects—it’s a signal that smart money is getting nervous about the foundation our entire financial system is built on.
So before you start planning that yacht purchase based on your 2025 returns, maybe take a step back and ask: Are you actually getting richer, or is your measuring stick just getting shorter?