Rivian just did something it hasn’t done in a very long time — it made bulls look smart.
Shares of the Irvine-based EV maker surged more than 20% on Friday after the company dropped a Q4 earnings report that beat on both top and bottom lines. Revenue came in at $1.29 billion versus the $1.26 billion consensus, and the adjusted loss of $0.54 per share was a significant improvement over the $0.68 loss Wall Street had penciled in. For a company that’s spent most of 2025 getting hammered — down 29% year-to-date heading into Friday — this was the first time in months investors had a genuine reason to cheer.
But the real catalyst wasn’t the quarter itself. It was the 2026 outlook. Rivian guided for 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries this year, representing a 47% to 59% jump over 2025 volumes. That’s well above what analysts had expected, and it’s being driven by one vehicle: the R2 SUV.
The R2 is Rivian’s shot at mainstream relevance. Priced around $45,000, it cuts bill-of-materials costs in half compared to the R1 platform. CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC the R2 should represent the majority of Rivian’s volume by the end of 2027, with production ramping at the Normal, Illinois plant starting with one shift before adding a second by year-end. The Q2 2026 launch date is confirmed and on track. If Rivian can execute, this is the vehicle that transforms it from a niche luxury EV brand into a legitimate mass-market competitor.
There’s also a milestone buried in the numbers that’s easy to miss: Rivian achieved its first-ever annual gross profit in 2025 — $144 million. Now, a big chunk of that came from the Volkswagen software joint venture rather than pure vehicle sales, and CFO Claire McDonough warned that 2026 will be a “transition year” for gross profitability as R2 production scales up. Translation: don’t expect that gross profit number to stick this year.
The financial picture isn’t pretty if you zoom in. Rivian expects adjusted pre-tax losses of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion for 2026, with capex between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion. That’s a lot of red ink. But with $6.59 billion in total liquidity — including nearly $6.1 billion in cash — the company has runway. Whether that runway leads to a real business or just a longer cash burn is the trillion-dollar question.
Analyst sentiment remains divided. UBS actually has a Sell rating with a $15 target, while the consensus sits around $17 — right where the stock traded on Friday. The 52-week range of $10.36 to $22.69 tells you everything about the volatility. This is a stock for people with conviction and stomach lining to match. The R2 launch in Q2 will be the next make-or-break moment. If the demand is there, Rivian’s 20% pop could be just the opening act.