Rivian just posted the kind of quarter that turns skeptics into believers — or at least makes them pause. The EV maker beat Wall Street estimates on both earnings and revenue, then guided to a 47-59% increase in vehicle deliveries for 2026. Shares ripped 27% higher on Friday, closing at $17.73 after sitting at $14 the day before.
The numbers: Rivian lost 54 cents per share in Q4, handily beating the 68-cent loss analysts expected. Revenue came in at $1.29 billion versus the $1.26 billion consensus. More importantly, the company posted its first-ever annual gross profit — $144 million for 2025, including $120 million in Q4 alone. For a company that has been hemorrhaging cash since inception, that is a genuine milestone.
But the headline that matters most is the R2. Rivian’s next-generation SUV, priced around $45,000, is set to launch in Q2 2026 and is expected to become the majority of the company’s volume by the end of 2027. CEO RJ Scaringe called 2026 “an inflection point” for the company, and the math backs him up. The R2 is designed to cut build material costs in half and dramatically reduce production complexity compared to the R1 lineup, which starts north of $70,000.
The 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 units would be a massive step-up from approximately 42,000 vehicles delivered in 2025. That increase is expected to come from the R2 ramp at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois factory, where production will start with one shift before adding a second by year-end. Additional R2 details — pricing, options, and model specifics — drop on March 12.
Of course, the bull case comes with substantial caveats. Rivian still expects to lose between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion on an adjusted pre-tax basis this year. Capital expenditures are guided at $1.95-2.05 billion, above the $1.8 billion analysts had penciled in. And the company’s gross profit story has an asterisk — that $144 million annual figure was propped up by its software and services joint venture with Volkswagen, which offset $432 million in automotive losses.
Rivian ended Q4 with $6.59 billion in total liquidity, including nearly $6.1 billion in cash. That is a comfortable war chest, but launching a mass-market vehicle while burning over $2 billion annually is not for the faint of heart. UBS has already cautioned that the post-earnings surge may be as far as the stock goes this year.
The bottom line: Rivian has proven it can build great vehicles that people love. The R2 is the company’s shot at proving it can build them profitably at scale. If the Q2 launch goes smoothly and production ramps on schedule, the stock at $17 could look like a steal in hindsight. If it stumbles, the cash burn becomes a ticking clock. Either way, March 12 just became the most important date on Rivian’s calendar.