When one insider sells, it’s a tax bill. When the entire C-suite sells at the same time, it’s a warning flare.
Over the past two weeks, Royal Caribbean’s executive team has unloaded a staggering $166 million worth of stock. The CEO sold 7,854 shares. The CFO dumped 51,131 shares. Two directors collectively sold 281,385 shares. The chief accounting officer and two other executives also hit the sell button. At over $300 per share, the numbers add up fast — and the coordinated nature of the selling is hard to ignore.
This isn’t routine portfolio rebalancing. Royal Caribbean insiders didn’t sell when the stock was even higher last summer. Something has changed. And the timing aligns with a troubling data point that should worry every investor holding consumer discretionary stocks.
A new Bank of America study found that America’s “K-shaped” recovery is deepening. Upper-income household spending rose 2.5% in January, but middle-income spending increased just 1%, and lower-income spending barely moved at 0.3%. Cruise tickets — typically running $3,000 to $5,000 per family — are exactly the kind of big-ticket discretionary purchase that gets axed when wallets tighten. And cruise companies have a unique window into future demand because most tickets are sold 6 to 18 months in advance. If bookings were holding strong, you’d expect insiders to sit tight. Instead, they’re heading for the exits.
They’re not alone. Airline executive selling at Delta Air Lines preceded a 5% stock decline last week. The rolling 90-day insider buy-sell ratio across all sectors has dropped to 0.30 — meaning for every stock purchase by a corporate insider, there are more than three sales. Berkshire Hathaway quietly dumped 75% of its Amazon holdings last quarter. Oracle and CoreWeave insiders have been selling aggressively. The “smart money” is de-risking across the board.
The bull case for Royal Caribbean isn’t dead. The stock has surged 150% over the past two years, and some of this selling may simply be insiders locking in life-changing gains. At current prices, some analysts calculate the stock is roughly 30% overvalued. And notably, rivals Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line have seen no recent insider sales — though both are in pre-earnings quiet periods that legally prohibit trading.
But here’s what cuts through the noise: cruise operators can see demand six to eighteen months before it shows up in official reports. When the people who build the ships and fill the cabins are getting off, you should at least ask why. With middle-class spending stalling, tariff uncertainty rattling consumer confidence, and Walmart’s CEO flagging an “uneven” recovery in last week’s guidance cut, the K-shaped economy isn’t just an abstract data point. It’s showing up in the trade confirmations of America’s corporate insiders — and right now, those confirmations say “sell.”