So here’s the thing about Tesla that nobody wants to talk about at dinner parties: it might be the most expensive magic trick in stock market history.
George Noble, a veteran fund manager who’s seen more market bubbles than a kid with a soap dispenser, just dropped some uncomfortable truth bombs about everyone’s favorite electric car company. And honestly? His math is pretty hard to argue with.
Noble thinks Tesla should be trading somewhere between $60-$140 per share. For context, it’s currently sitting around $460. That’s not a “small correction” territory – we’re talking about an 87% haircut if he’s right. Ouch.
Here’s where it gets spicy: Noble calls Tesla “the biggest bubble possibly in stock market history.” That’s saying something, considering this guy lived through the dot-com crash when pets.com was worth more than actual pet stores.
The core issue? Tesla’s story doesn’t match its report card. While Elon’s out there promising robot butlers and self-driving taxis (for the past decade, mind you), the actual business – you know, selling cars – has been shrinking for two straight years. That’s like a restaurant bragging about their upcoming cookbook while the kitchen’s on fire.
Noble puts it perfectly: “The product is the stock. It’s not the cars.” Tesla has become a masterclass in narrative-driven investing, jumping from solar panels to boring tunnels to humanoid robots faster than a Netflix series changes plotlines.
But here’s the kicker – 87% of Tesla’s revenue still comes from selling actual cars. All those fancy AI dreams and robotaxi promises? They’re basically expensive hobbies right now. It’s like valuing McDonald’s based on their potential to become a space exploration company.
The competition isn’t helping either. Remember when Tesla was the only cool electric car on the block? Those days are gone. Now every automaker from Ford to Ferrari is making EVs, and some of them are actually pretty good. Tesla’s losing market share faster than a flip phone in 2007.
Noble isn’t alone in this thinking. Even some of Tesla’s former cheerleaders are backing away slowly. Ross Gerber, who used to be Musk’s biggest fan, spent 2025 quietly selling his Tesla shares like someone sneaking out of a bad movie.
Look, nobody’s saying Tesla is a bad company. They revolutionized electric vehicles and deserve credit for that. But there’s a difference between being innovative and being worth more than the next ten automakers combined.
The real question isn’t whether Tesla will succeed – it’s whether success justifies a $1.4 trillion price tag. Because right now, investors are paying premium prices for promises that have been “just around the corner” for years.
Sometimes the emperor really isn’t wearing any clothes. And sometimes, a car company is just a car company – even if it has really good marketing.