Remember that friend who bought Tesla at $20 and won’t shut up about it? Well, veteran fund manager George Noble just dropped the financial equivalent of a cold shower on the Tesla party, calling it “the biggest stock market bubble of all time.” Ouch.
Noble isn’t some random Twitter bear with 47 followers. This guy ran money at Fidelity International and founded two hedge funds, so when he says Tesla is more disconnected from reality than your uncle’s Facebook posts, people listen.
Here’s the tea: Tesla’s trading at around $460 per share, but Noble thinks it should be somewhere between $60-$140. That’s not a haircut—that’s a full scalping. We’re talking an 87% drop from current levels. Yikes.
The problem? Tesla’s become the ultimate “trust me bro” stock. Musk keeps spinning new narratives faster than a DJ at a wedding. First it was solar panels, then underground tunnels (because traffic is hard), and now it’s robotaxis and humanoid robots. Meanwhile, the actual car business—you know, the thing that makes 87% of their revenue—has been shrinking for two straight years.
“The product is the stock. It’s not the cars,” Noble says, which is basically the financial equivalent of saying the emperor has no clothes but everyone’s too polite to mention it.
Think about it: Tesla’s valued at $1.4 trillion. That’s more than most countries’ GDP. For a company that’s essentially a car manufacturer with really good marketing and a CEO who tweets like he’s had too much coffee.
The “Tesla is more than a car company” narrative has become Wall Street’s favorite bedtime story. Sure, Musk promises robotaxis will revolutionize everything, but he’s been promising that for a decade. At this point, it’s like waiting for your friend to pay you back—you’ve heard the story so many times you’ve stopped believing it.
Noble isn’t alone in his skepticism. Porter Collins (yes, from “The Big Short” fame) also thinks Tesla is wildly overvalued. Even Ross Gerber, who was basically Tesla’s biggest cheerleader, spent 2025 quietly selling his stake like someone sneaking out of a bad party.
The math is pretty brutal: Tesla’s automotive business, which is struggling, is worth maybe $20 per share based on normal car company valuations. The rest of that $460 price tag? That’s pure hope, hype, and the collective belief that Elon will somehow reinvent transportation, AI, and possibly the laws of physics.
Look, maybe Musk pulls another rabbit out of his hat. Maybe those Cybercabs actually work and don’t need steering wheels because they’re just that good. But betting your retirement on “maybe Elon figures it out” feels like the kind of strategy that works great until it doesn’t.
The lesson here? When a stock’s success depends more on storytelling than spreadsheets, it might be time to ask some uncomfortable questions. Just saying.