Remember Ross Gerber? The guy who used to be Elon Musk’s biggest cheerleader before becoming his most vocal critic? Well, he’s back with another hot take, and this time he’s calling 2026 Tesla’s “come-to-Jesus” year. Spoiler alert: it’s not looking pretty.
Here’s the deal: Gerber thinks Tesla is about to face the music for all those wild promises Musk has been making. You know, the whole “we’ll have fully autonomous cars everywhere” thing that’s been “just around the corner” for… what, five years now?
The problem isn’t just that Tesla’s self-driving tech is still playing catch-up to Waymo (Google’s robo-taxi that’s actually, you know, working in real cities). It’s that Musk spent a whole year playing government efficiency czar instead of, well, running his car company. Oops.
“The year that Elon took off from Tesla really cost Tesla a year,” Gerber told Business Insider. And honestly? He’s not wrong. While Musk was busy tweeting about government waste, Waymo was busy expanding their actual functioning self-driving service. It’s like showing up to a race after your competitor already crossed the finish line.
But here’s where it gets spicy: Gerber thinks Musk’s stubborn refusal to use LiDAR sensors (those spinning laser thingies that help cars “see”) is Tesla’s Achilles’ heel. Waymo uses them, and their cars don’t randomly decide fire trucks are overpasses. Tesla? Still betting everything on cameras and AI, because apparently admitting you need better hardware is for quitters.
The math is pretty brutal. Tesla’s been promising full self-driving for years, but customers aren’t exactly lining up to pay for it. Meanwhile, Waymo is actually picking up passengers in multiple cities. It’s like Tesla is still in the “trust me bro” phase while Waymo is running an actual business.
And don’t even get Gerber started on Tesla’s image problem. Turns out, when your CEO becomes a polarizing political figure, some people might just… choose a different ride. Revolutionary concept, right?
Gerber’s betting on Alphabet (Google’s parent company) as the real winner in the self-driving space. His logic? They’ve got the money, the working technology, and they’re not waiting around for anyone to catch up. “Google has the money and they’re not going to wait,” he said. Translation: while Tesla is still figuring out how to make their cars not hit things, Google is scaling up.
Oh, and those humanoid robots Musk claims will “eliminate poverty”? Gerber’s not buying it. Shocking, I know.
The bottom line: 2026 might be the year Tesla finally has to deliver on all those moonshot promises, or watch investors head for the exits. Because at some point, even the most patient shareholders want to see results instead of just really entertaining earnings calls.
Will Tesla prove the doubters wrong? Will Musk finally crack the self-driving code? Or will 2026 be the year reality comes knocking? Grab some popcorn – this is going to be interesting.