Remember Danny Moses? The guy who made bank betting against the housing market before it all went to hell in 2008? Well, he’s back with some advice that sounds like it came from your gambling-addicted cousin but actually makes a lot of sense.
Moses thinks you should be paying attention to prediction markets. You know, those platforms where people bet on everything from who’s going to win the Super Bowl to whether a cute collectible toy called Labubu will hit certain price targets. (Yes, that’s a real thing people are betting on in 2026.)
“But wait,” you’re thinking, “isn’t this just fancy gambling?” Well, yes and no. Moses argues these betting platforms have become surprisingly useful tools for actual investors trying to figure out what’s going to happen next in the markets.
Here’s his logic: When thousands of people are putting real money on the line about whether SoFi will get added to the S&P 500 (currently sitting at 38% odds, by the way), that’s information you can use. If you’re shorting SoFi and didn’t know about this possibility, you might be in for an unpleasant surprise when it gets the index bump and rockets higher.
Moses isn’t just talking theory here. He’s actually scanning these prediction markets like he used to read the Financial Times. “It actually will get you thinking about things you might have been missing,” he told Business Insider. Coming from a guy who spotted the housing bubble before almost everyone else, that’s worth listening to.
The really interesting part? Sometimes these prediction markets offer better odds than traditional options trading. Moses gives the example of betting whether Bitcoin will drop below $70,000 in Q1 2026. If the prediction market is giving you 12-to-1 odds on that happening, it might be a cheaper hedge than buying put options on crypto.
Think about it: instead of paying hefty premiums for options that might expire worthless, you could place a small bet that pays out big if you’re right. It’s like insurance, but with better odds and less paperwork.
The prediction market boom isn’t slowing down either. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are pulling in serious money, and Moses thinks we’re just getting started. “I think institutions are going to start using prediction markets more,” he says. When the big money starts playing, things get really interesting.
So what’s the takeaway? You don’t need to start betting your rent money on whether it’ll rain next Tuesday. But keeping an eye on what the crowd is betting on – especially around stocks you own or economic events that could move markets – might give you an edge.
After all, if the guy who saw the 2008 crash coming is telling you to pay attention to something, maybe it’s worth a look. Just don’t blame us when you find yourself checking the odds on everything from Fed rate cuts to celebrity breakups.