Remember Danny Moses? Yeah, the guy who helped blow up the housing market in 2008 and made Michael Lewis write a whole book about it. Well, he’s back with some advice that sounds absolutely bonkers until you think about it for five seconds: you should be paying attention to prediction markets.
Now before you roll your eyes and mutter something about “gambling,” hear me out. Moses isn’t talking about throwing your rent money on whether Taylor Swift will announce another album this month (though honestly, the odds are probably decent). He’s talking about using platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as actual investment tools.
Here’s the thing that’s kind of brilliant: these markets are basically crowdsourced crystal balls. Take SoFi, for example. While everyone’s been arguing about whether it’s a decent fintech play, prediction markets are giving it a 38% chance of joining the S&P 500 this year. If you’re short SoFi and didn’t know that, well… oops?
Moses learned this lesson the hard way when Carvana got added to the index recently. “If you’re betting against a stock and you weren’t thinking about the possibility of it joining the S&P 500, that’s something you need to be aware of,” he says. Translation: the crowd might know something you don’t.
But here’s where it gets really interesting. Moses thinks these markets might actually offer better risk-reward than traditional options sometimes. Say you own Bitcoin and want to hedge against it dropping below $70,000 this quarter. If the prediction market is pricing that at 8 cents (12-to-1 odds), that might be way cheaper than buying put options.
It’s like having a massive focus group that puts their money where their mouth is. And unlike your uncle’s hot stock tips at Thanksgiving dinner, these people are literally betting real cash on their predictions.
The best part? Moses thinks we’re just getting started. “I think institutions are going to start using prediction markets more, and as institutions use it, you’re going to see a lot more activity.” When Wall Street starts taking something seriously, you know it’s about to get very real, very fast.
Look, I’m not saying you should start betting on whether it’ll rain next Tuesday (though if you live in Seattle, that’s probably free money). But scanning through business and economics prediction markets? That’s just smart research with extra steps.
The guy who saw the housing crash coming thinks prediction markets are worth watching. Maybe we should listen. After all, he’s got a pretty good track record of being right about things everyone else thinks are crazy.
Just remember: this isn’t about gambling your way to riches. It’s about using every tool available to make smarter investment decisions. And if that tool happens to involve betting on stuff, well, welcome to 2026.