So Iran’s playing hardball near the Strait of Hormuz, and suddenly everyone’s freaking out about oil. Fair enough—roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through that waterway. But here’s the thing: if you’re just buying random oil stocks hoping crude prices moon, you’re basically gambling. Oil nearly tanked 30% in a single day last Monday. That’s not investing; that’s a coin flip with your retirement account.
The real play? Stocks that make money whether oil’s at $85 or $120. Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Absolutely.
**Devon Energy (DVN): The Shale Survivor**
Devon’s one of America’s biggest shale producers, and they just merged with Coterra Energy. Their breakeven price is so low they’ll stay profitable even if crude pulls back hard. They can also lock in prices using futures, so they’re not sweating the daily volatility.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Devon’s been sitting on a stranded gas problem in West Texas for years. New pipeline capacity is finally coming online, connecting their production to LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast. Timing? Impeccable. Global LNG supply is tightening, and Devon’s about to tap into that market. It’s not just an oil story anymore.
**Equinor (EQNR): The European Lifeline**
Equinor supplies most of Europe’s piped gas, and they’ve been here before. When Russia cut off gas after invading Ukraine in 2022, Equinor stepped in. Their stock doubled, and dividends grew for four straight years.
Now Qatar’s been forced to cut LNG production after Iranian missile strikes hit their energy infrastructure. European gas prices are already spiking. Equinor’s shares are still trading nearly 20% below their 2022 peak. Do the math.
**Mosaic (MOS): The Fertilizer Angle Nobody’s Talking About**
Here’s where most investors miss the plot entirely. The Gulf isn’t just an energy hub—it’s a major fertilizer supplier. Nitrogen-based fertilizer exports have basically stopped. CF Industries is up 40% since January, Nutrien’s up 20%. They’re the obvious plays.
Mosaic makes potash and phosphate, which is different. They haven’t moved with the crowd yet. But rising nitrogen prices are already changing crop planting decisions, and that ripple effect has implications for Mosaic that Wall Street hasn’t caught up to. This is the kind of second-order thinking that separates winners from the crowd.
**The Bottom Line**
Oil prices are unpredictable—they can swing hard in either direction. But Devon and Equinor’s low breakeven costs mean they stay profitable even if crude crashes. And Mosaic’s thesis isn’t even about oil prices; it’s about fertilizer market dynamics. That’s diversification.
The Hormuz crisis is real, but the obvious trade is already dangerous. These three stocks? They’re the smart money’s move.